Table of Contents
The dust begins to clear, and in the Wild West, only one cowboy is left standing. 🌵
After three days of fierce competition, Yoshihiko Ikawa was crowned as Pro Tour Outlaws of Thunder Junction champion. So many rounds of the highest level of Standard leave us with interesting data.
It is easy to look at the top 32 players and think their Standard decks were the best decks of the tournaments. Nothing could be further from the truth. While it’s true that some of them were the best decks on the PT OTJ field, there are some amazing archetypes with the best win rates out of the picture because their pilots don’t have good draft results.
Thanks to Frank Karsten, we have the complete Standard Win Rates: PT OTJ data, Day 1 +2 combined. This is extremely useful to understand what was happening at the venue in detail. Let’s put on our hats and boots, and ride to the horizon, dear cowgirls and cowboys. Let’s find out what happened at the Pro Tour looking closer to the numbers. 🤠
Standard Win Rates: PT Thunder Junction Day 1 + 2
Meta Overview
Yoshihiko Ikawa won the tournament with 5-Color Domain Domain Ramp. That archetype just got a 50.0% win rate in 96 matches. Esper Midrange’s history was worse. Arne Huschenbeth and Lucas Duchow put that deck in the top 8, however, it got only a 49.4% win rate in 334 matches during the weekend.
Both archetypes’ win rates are much higher on MTG Arena, but we also know tournaments are a different environment. This situation repeats with powerful archetypes like Dimir, Boros Convoke, and Prowess.
At the same time, we must understand how an archetype behaves when it’s trendy. If the environment is prepared to face the archetype, the greater the number of players, the greater the probability of obtaining negative results.
The same thing happens in reverse. If the archetype is popular but the field is not prepared for the match, and the archetype is also good against the expected meta, the greater the probability of obtaining good results. That’s the UW Control case.
We can translate these statements into unpopular archetypes. Jund Analyst would be the best success example and Temur Prowess is its counterpart without much luck.
Let’s move on to the lists of the most relevant archetypes of the tournament. Considering the total numbers beyond the Top 32 placements isolating Standard results will leave us some interesting lessons.
Jund Ramp Analyst
Jund Ramp – Andrew Kidston PT OTJ 8-2 15th Place
by Bohe
Standard
Ramp
best of 3
4 mythic
20 rare
8 uncommon
28 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (10)
Sorceries (18)
Enchantments (4)
Lands (28)
60 Cards
$206.96
Sideboard
15 Cards
$49.13
13 wins and 4 losses. The best Standard deck of the tournament with an outstanding 76.5% win rate.
This variation of the Temur Ramp crushed the metagame. With positive win rates against Esper Midrange, Boros Convoke, Temur Ramp, 5-Color Domain, and Mono Red, it was clear it was fully prepared to crush the format.
The two most interesting cards here are Pillage the Bog and Pitiless Carnage. We already talked a lot about Pillage the Bog in our last Pioneer/Explorer meta report:
In that article, I mentioned how this new card put Niv-Mizzet Reborn again on the map. In what Standard matters, in this deck, you are playing almost 30 lands and you ramp in explosive ways. This makes this sorcery capable of tutoring any card you need when you needed.
It also helps a lot during the early game helping us find key cards of this strategy for developing our game plan as soon as possible.
Pitiless Carnage is the main reason for being Jund instead of Temur:
- Step 1: Plot Pitiless Carnage on turn 3.
- Step 2: Float all your mana on turn 4. Cast Pitiless Carnage and sacrifice all your lands. Draw that many cards.
- Step 3: Cast Splendid Reclamation or activate Aftermath Analystability and you get all your lands back.
With 4 Spelunking all your lands are going to come into play untap. Killing with Worldsoul's Rage after this is a piece of cake.
Orzhov Aggro Bronco
Orzhov Aggro – Kevin Anctil PT OTJ 6-3-1 18th Place
by Bohe
Standard
Aggro
best of 3
4 mythic
41 rare
8 uncommon
7 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (26)
Sorceries (4)
Lands (24)
60 Cards
$524.04
Sideboard
15 Cards
$60.93
With a 12-7 record and 63.2% win rate, Orzhov put a completely new archetype on the map. It is a mix between the old good Mono-Black Aggro and Mono-White Aggro with an integrated combo that can put your opponents at 1 life as soon as turn three.
This is possible because of one of the revelation cards of the tournament, Caustic Bronco. This card was even called Bronconfidant reminding us of those Dark Confidant times.
The trick with this creature goes beyond, drawing a card and losing life equal to its cost. If you saddle this creature, your opponents are the ones that are going to lose life instead. The trick is putting Shadow of Mortality on the top of your library with Insatiable Avarice, killing your opponent with one Bronco attack most of the time.
The high number of creatures and their quality make this deck capable of fighting fair games without the combo. This is true enough that some other Orzhov Aggro iterations are now having great results in big tournaments like the MTGO Super Qualifier even without the Bronco combo.
Azorius Artifacts
Azorius Artifacts – Josep Sanfeliu PT OTJ 7-3 33rd Place
by Bohe
Standard
Control
best of 3
9 mythic
41 rare
6 uncommon
4 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (4)
Instants (2)
Sorceries (2)
Artifacts (27)
Lands (25)
60 Cards
$397.88
Sideboard
15 Cards
$75.79
Here is where all this analysis makes sense. Josep Sanfeliu had an amazing Standard portion of the tournament. If we isolate Josep’s constructed record from the last 2 Pro Tours he also participated in PT MKM he had an amazing 14-6 record. Sadly, his limited records weren’t that good and because of this, he ended in place 33rd of PT OTJ.
That single place between 32 and 33 made many miss this amazing Azorius Artifacts Control build that crushed Josep’s opposition with elegance.
The wide variety of artifacts this deck has can respond to many common situations in the current state of the meta. Spring-Loaded Sawblades can kill almost any attacking creature and after that become a threat. Glass Casket is good against aggressive decks, and completing the two-mana curve, Fabrication Foundry helps you ramp into more expensive trinkets.
Simulacrum Synthesizer helps you go wide while Braided Net gives you control of your opponent’s permanents. Assimilation Aegisdoes wonders against big creatures, and Unstable Glyphbridge can destroy creature-based decks.
7-3 is an amazing result for this build and I hope it sticks. It seems like a lot of fun!
Bant Control
Bant Control – Jonathan Dery PT OTJ 6-4 117th Place
by Bohe
Standard
Control
best of 3
9 mythic
32 rare
10 uncommon
9 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (4)
Lands (26)
60 Cards
$507.18
Sideboard
15 Cards
$27.61
As far as the standings and the Standard record let me know, Jonathan only won 1 draft round. This makes this iteration of UW Control pass almost unnoticed.
However, if we look closely, a 6-4 record put this iteration a little over UW control in the win ratio department. Yes, it’s a small sample, but 6 wins on a PT Standard portion made me think we should give more opportunities to Up the Beanstalk in the format besides 5-Color Domain.
The card is banned on Modern for a reason. You can’t take advantage of this enchantment on Standard as much as on an eternal format. However, this is proof enough that there are many ways of doing it, and we should pay attention to it.
UW Control
UW Control – Yuta Takahashi PT OTJ 7-1-2 2nd Place
by Bohe
Standard
Control
best of 3
4 mythic
36 rare
8 uncommon
12 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Planeswalkers (4)
Instants (23)
Sorceries (3)
Enchantments (2)
Lands (28)
60 Cards
$337.56
Sideboard
15 Cards
$62.03
From the master of control, Yuta Takahashi we have the best control list in the tournament; a brew with only one loss. Yuta is the best control player in the world probably in a tight race against Guillaume Wafo-Tapa, and he probes this again, tournament after tournament.
From all the tier 1 decks of the format, UW Control was the best performer with a 42-29 record, which translates to a 59.2% win rate. This puts this archetype as the main contender for the next big events.
Three Steps Aheadlooks like the best card this archetype has. During the streamed coverage, some casters compared this card to Cryptic Command. Saying this is the new Cryptic Command is a bold affirmation, however, it’s not that far in flexibility and utility during all game stages.
The two copies of Phantom Interference look good helping this deck pivot as needed. With answers for almost everything the format can throw at you, this archetype shows us that it’s in a strong position. The Fairy Mastermind gives us a new masterclass of playing Control.
4-Color Legends
4-Color Legends – PT OTJ Etienne Eggenschwiler 8-1-1 9th Pla
by Bohe
Standard
Control
best of 3
6 mythic
40 rare
13 uncommon
1 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (22)
Artifacts (4)
Lands (29)
60 Cards
$653.12
Sideboard
15 Cards
$124.97
The best 4-Color Legends player on the field was not in the top 8! Etienne Eggenschwiler was so close, finishing in 9th place with an outstanding 8-1-1 record in the Standard portion of the tournament.
It’s easy not to understand all the layers of this deck. This was the meta-call off-meta deck of the tournament, and for many, this was the first time seeing what this archetype is capable of.
The key card is Relic of Legends. With this artifact on the field, all your legendary creatures can be tapped for mana, working as mana dorks with pseudo-haste. Combining this with Rona, Herald of Invasion works like a virtual -1 to all your creatures’ casting costs because Rona untaps itself whenever you cast a legendary spell.
You can use each creature you cast for mana immediately, meaning that your 2-cost legendary creatures are technically free with the Relic and Rona on the field.
The trick grows exponentially with Slogurk, the Overslime. The Kamigawa legendary lands Boseiju, Who Endures, Otawara, Soaring City, and Takenuma, Abandoned Mire give us activations that help Slogurk grow. With that many legends, Rona can tap itself for mana and Channel the Kamigawa lands, and then you can use Slogurk’s second ability to return it to your hand, bringing the legendary lands back to your hand. @ _@
If you are still following what’s happening, this deck has many ways of winning. You can use Vial Smasher, and Gleeful Grenadier to ping your opponent to death, you can win tons of life with Titania, Voice of Gaea or attack with an enormous Slogurk after you bounce all the blockers with Otawara, Soaring City.
With a 71-51 record and 58.2% win rate, this deck is on the map once again. You better be prepared.
Golgari Midrange
Golgari Midrange – Matt Sperling PT OTJ 7-3 54th Place
by Bohe
Standard
Control
best of 3
6 mythic
38 rare
8 uncommon
8 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Planeswalkers (1)
Creatures (19)
Lands (26)
60 Cards
$533.44
Sideboard
15 Cards
$78.61
Matt Sperling didn’t have a good weekend playing limited. However, his Golgari Midrange build was incredible! With 7 wins and 3 losses, a combined record of 18-13 58.1 for the archetype Golgari proves it’s in the best possible shape since Wilds of Eldraine, set where the archetype was born in Standard.
Back then, Mosswood Dreadknight was the main reason for this archetype. However, despite its popularity back then, the archetype never reigns as the format’s best deck. Like “The Rock”, it doesn’t have a bad matchup, and that was its strength.
Now with Caustic Bronco, Kervek, the Punisher, Shoot the Sheriff, and Pillage the Bog, the archetype has new tools to get advantages it didn’t have before.
This makes me think how much we will see Caustic Bronco decks in the next months. It surely will be a lot.
Temur Ramp
Temur Ramp – Sean Goddard PT OTJ 7-1-2 8th Place
by Bohe
Standard
Ramp
best of 3
8 mythic
13 rare
10 uncommon
29 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (9)
Lands (30)
60 Cards
$219.74
Sideboard
15 Cards
$20.47
After analyzing the best 8 decks of the tournament, is easy to see that the non-creature decks have a better time on the Outlaws at Thunder Junction Pro Tour. Temur Ramp is one of the best in that category.
It’s now an established archetype in the meta and two of its iterations Jund and Temur got amazing results sorry Sultai. Playing a deck with many board sweepers is great in the current state of the meta. That’s why just the most hard-to-peel creature decks like Orzhov and Legends were the ones that prevailed.
Not many changes to the standard list of Temur. Nevertheless, Bonny Pall, Clearcutter on the sideboard remembers one of the calls I made about new cards in established archetypes when OTJ was released. Grats to Sean for the top 8!
End Step
Revising every archetype with more than 51.0% gives us a new perspective on the Standard metagame. As we always say, Bo1, Bo3, and tournament play are different beasts that can be tamed similarly, however, that doesn’t mean that the same tools will work in the three environments without proper preparation and considering all the possible variables.
I end this article with 4 teachings this tournament left me:
- Small variations of current archetypes could break the meta: Jund Ramp and Bant Control being the main examples.
- Caustic Bronco is better than expected and we will see this card around for a long time.
- Correct and studied off-meta calls like 4-Color Legends and Azorius Artifacts can give you amazing results.
- Play a deck without bad matchups tuned for the environment like Golgari Midrange excels in the right hands.
Let us know your thoughts on this and any other MTG-related topics in the MTG Arena Community Discord, on my Twitter, and in the comment section of this article.
Don’t forget that I have started providing personal coaching services for Magic the Gathering and Marvel Snap. If you want to contact me, look for me:
- On Discord as bohettv
- On my Twitter
- Via email at [email protected]
- On Twitch
Thank you so much for reaching this last paragraph and remember; don’t forget to smile every day; it surely makes a difference.
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Bohe
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