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Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ) Draft Guide – Qualifiers and Arena Open Edition

Our in-depth guide to the Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ) Draft, with the most important information you need to know about the format.

Howdy everyone! We’ve spent enough time rustling up some trouble in the wild west of Thunder Junction that it’s time for me to drop all of that accumulated knowledge on you ahead of the Arena Open and Qualifier events.

I’m a little behind my normal timeline for articles due to real life and on top of that there is a lot to digest with this set. I wanted to let it settle a bit more because it felt like the early games weren’t indicative of what the format would turn out to be.

Key Ideas of Outlaws of Thunder Junction Draft

Do you like a format with really powerful bombs running rampant so you can throw game swinging haymakers at each other? Then Outlaws of Thunder Junction was designed with you in mind. I want to say that it was planned to be that way to match the wild west theme of the set, but who knows if that actually was discussed.

I’m not saying that all of the games revolve around that, but there is a healthy chunk of them that come down to who connects with the biggest knockout punch. An example is Overwhelming Forces turning a close back and forth game into a rout. I don’t even want to talk about turn three Oko, Thief of Crowns on the play. It’s built into the format and you just have to accept that and move on to focus on winning.

Normally (but not always) formats can balance this out by having some low to the ground aggressive decks that punish the greedy ones. This format lacks a readily available way to do that consistently. Selesnya might be the best deck, but all that mounting puts you in the value game or going tall instead of going under.  There are some tempo-based decks, but they aren’t as punishing as they have been in some of the past formats.

In a lot of ways, it feels almost like drafting a low powered cube. Lands are a high priority and you want to have a focused plan for what your deck is doing. Sometimes that strategy is to draft fixing and the most powerful cards possible with ways to stall until you can play them. Other times you are going to need to be drafting more synergistic pieces instead of focusing on power level. Draft a deck, not a pile of cards.

You’re probably wondering why I just spend so much time talking about how bomby the format is when everyone already knows it. It’s very relevant because this actually provides an advantage to better players.

I’m sure you just did the spit take thinking “What the hell Josh?!? That just means that my opponent is more likely to have bombs.” The thing is that so are you and rares are significantly more difficult to properly value giving you a huge advantage if you understand which ones are actually going to perform better for you. You’re also better off understanding what can be reasonably splashed and less likely to take an ill-advised U-Turn because of something shiny.

My whole point is that there is more skill coming into play in this format than people are giving it credit for. If you’re really struggling with this format, maybe you need to reevaluate those parts of your game. There’s a good chance that a little better decision making during the draft and deck building could give your win rate a decent boost.

As far as the play booster with a bonus sheet experience goes it can lead to times where your two bombs, five mythic uncommons deck just loses to their seven busted rares decks. That doesn’t happen often, but it feels extremely bad when it does resulting in people focusing on those times. I’m sure you wouldn’t be complaining if the roles were reversed. Though I do admit that it does exacerbate the problems with out of pod play where sometimes you lost the game before you start shuffling because you were drafting at the wrong table. It’s just another form of variance that you have to account for and make up for when it’s in your favor.

Format Speed

According to the stats the speed of this format is pretty middle of the pack for recent sets when it comes to the length of the game. That doesn’t tell the whole story because games can be drawn out pretty easily if that is your game plan.  When people were complaining about it being too fast early on, it was mostly that aggro decks were feasting on unfocused decks. I find the overall speed to be right around the sweet spot where you get to play your spells, but without being too grindy.

The win rate on the play is up to fifty-three percent in premier drafts which is a bit too high for my tastes. I have preferred the traditional draft experience over the premier one because of this and the usual other reasons.

Archetype Tiers

Ranking archetypes is complicated in this set because I don’t really follow color pair archetypes so much as game plans. I don’t really want to draft them in any particular order because it’s more important to be in the right deck for your seat than to force a particular deck. I can’t stress enough how much finding the right lane for your seat matters in OTJ draft.

A good example is that Dimir can be multiple different archetypes and is performing significantly better for high end players than low end overall. That is partly because they are able to craft their deck to follow their game plan instead of taking generically good cards in those colors.

There is a tempo-based Dimir Crimes version that really wants cheap spells such as Desert’s Due and Take the Fall. Intimidation Campaign and Raven of Fell Omens drain their opponent out a lot quicker than expected.

There are also Dimir versions based around milling the opponent out and even within that niche there are different strategies. The Deepmuck Desperado versions are going to be trying to commit crimes on both players turns, but are still more controlling than the tempo-based crimes version. The Archive Trap mill variations are usually heavily controlling to get to the point where those thirteen cards just end the game. There are even recursion-based Archive Trap combo style decks.

My major point here is that the big difference for better players in these archetypes is that there are a ton of decisions that go into building these decks. There are also a ton of decisions going into playing them especially compared to most of the green decks.

Speaking of the Green decks, they are almost always heavily overdrafted at this point because it’s the best color by a decent margin. That’s not to say that you shouldn’t be going for those archetypes, it’s just that you need to be prepared for some competition.

People have been cracking on the Izzet decks and they have the lowest win rate in the format. I can tell you that I’ve been getting trophies with mine because they have been so wide open that I end up with ridiculous things such as triple Slick Sequence. I’m mostly using this example to reiterate that you shouldn’t focus on what archetype you’re going into so much as drafting the right deck for your seat. Everything is powerful in this set so being the only person drafting this while three people fight over Selesnya will give you a significantly stronger deck than them.

Tips and Tricks

The ping deserts are often worth running even if they only touch one of your colors. Besides the point of damage, it is a free crime.

I’ve been down on removal for a few sets, but it is certainly back this set. There are a ton of cards that you can’t beat if you can’t interact with.

Deepmuck Desperado is often a worthy first pick in a pack that is missing a bomb. It’s a very viable win condition that is easy to build around.

I’ve seen people windmill slam Jace Reawakened because it’s a mythic planeswalker named Jace. It’s a fine card, but nothing to get overly excited about. There are tons of uncommons better than it.

Three for ones are the new two for ones. Seriously there is a ton of value running around.

Take the Fall is premium interaction if you are blue especially in any of the decks trying to commit crimes. It is still going far later than it should be.

Binding Negotiation is one of the few times you can have discard actually trade up on mana. It’s less likely to be dead than normal because it can still grab something they plotted.

Another black uncommon that I’ve seen people underrating is Blood Hustler. I’ve had a ton of success with that card and have been able to pick it up later than expected.

Another mistake I’ve seen is people plotting a card such as Blacksnag Buzzard and waiting multiple turns to play it because their opponent won’t trade off creatures. The +1+1 counter can be nice, but sometimes you need to realize when you’re the beatdown.

We’ve had bad versions of Manticore effects for a while, but Rooftop Assassin is legit.

Any concern over Shoot the Sheriff not having any targets has been thrown out the window. It’s premium.

Red is at its best as a support color. It feels like I did something wrong if it’s the main part of my game plan.

Reminder that Dance of the Tumbleweeds puts the land into play untapped (unless the land always enters tapped). I’ve seen some people sequence poorly because they didn’t realize this.

Don’t fall for a card like Bovine Intervention. That 2/2 is usually going to matter more than you are accounting for.

Since Journey to Nowhere is worded like the old versions, you can play it and bounce it with Failed Fording while the trigger is on the stack so that they lose that creature forever and you still have the Journey to replay.

Sweepers

Final Showdown is one of those “Oh no!” cards where you thought you had a clean attack and get everything wiped at instant speed. I’m thankful that it is a mythic so it doesn’t come up that often.

Speaking of mythics that crush dreams… Overwhelming Forces might cost eight mana, but it is almost always game ending. There really isn’t much you can do about it in premier draft either unless you somehow sniff it out.

Contagion Engine is nowhere near the bomb it used to be, but is perfectly serviceable. It’s more of a late pick, but its mythic status prevents that from happening.

Neutralize the Guards and Caught in the Crossfire are the miniature sweepers to account for.

Combat Tricks

Take the Fall can often be the most devastating combat trick in the format. One mana to win a combat, draw a card, and commit a crime is a massive swing.

Snakeskin Veil is doing Snakeskin Veil things. It’s important to remember that this exists so you don’t get the full blowout. An example would be to not make an attack with the plan to blowout a double block with your removal spell when they are holding a green mana up with priority.

Trash the Town can seriously mess you up so definitely consider it when setting up blocks.

Take Up the Shield can be a rough one because of the life swing thrown into saving their creature. Rustler Rampage is the other white combat trick to think about, but it’s not on the same level.

Fake Your Own Death really requires an ETB to maximize it, but sometimes it’s still fine with a trade up. Really watch for this one if they are attacking something like Vault Plunderer into your Cactarantula.

Metamorphic Blast is one to watch out for since it can both kill your best creature and draw them cards at the same time.

Gold Rush is one of those cards that people fall in love with the idea of, but often plays much worse. Quick Draw is another janky combat trick that you barely have to worry about.

Ride Down is solid as long as you’re the beatdown, it’s also something to consider when a Boros deck is suspiciously attacking into your large creature.

Outlaws' Fury is the common group pump spell for the format.

Clear Shot is as good as we all remember. Watch out for a trade that seems too good to be true. You don’t want to let them use it to win a combat and kill a creature.

Great Train Heist is thankfully a rare because it often ends the game when it resolves.

Back for More isn’t a combat trick by the basic definition, but a surprise baddie popping up to block and fight something down is pretty damn tricky.

Counterspells

There are a lot of very, very good counterspells running around and properly figuring out which one they have could help turn the tides of battle.

Phantom Interference is the best version of Quench that we’ve gotten. The back up of an overcosted 2/2 flyer doesn’t seem like much, but it’s a helluva lot better than stone cold nothing. When your opponent taps out to drop a bomb and you get both is when it gets absurd.

Essence Capture is another great two mana counter running around, look out for this if you see them holding double blue up.

Yeah, yeah, freaking Mana Drain is running around too. I’ve already had someone Mana Drain my three drop and play their turn three Bonny Pall, Clearcutter.

Three Steps Ahead is another potentially busted one, but at least it’s rare. Same goes for Archmage's Charm.

Desertion being a special guest means that no one ever plays around it and it often crushes dreams.

Mindbreak Trap is a very subpar counterspell, but you could still look for it.

Commandeer doesn’t really exist in this format, but technically you could get got by it.

Bombs

These are the Pack One Pick One (p1p1) no doubt, windmill slam, just take them rares of the set. These are not in rank order, just take these over any non-mythic uncommon or common. There are plenty more easy first pick ones, but I only have so much room in this article.

Mythic Uncommons

These might be uncommons, but they sure don’t play like they are.

Do Not Draft List

These are the cards that you really shouldn’t try to talk yourself into. Just let them live peacefully in the sideboard (preferably someone elses).

Wrap Up

Thanks for reading! I’ll be back soon with my limited review of the Alchemy cards for Outlaws of Thunder Junction. Until then, stay classy people!

I’m always open to feedback, let me know what you loved, what you hated, or just send dog pics. You can contact me at:

Iroas, God of Victory Art

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j2sjosh
j2sjosh

Josh is a member of the elite limited team The Draft Lab as well as the host of The Draft Lab Podcast. He was qualifying for Pro Tours, Nationals, and Worlds literally before some of you were born. After a Magic hiatus to play poker and go to medical school, he has been dominating Arena with over an 80% win percentage in Bo3 as well as making #1 rank in Mythic.

Articles: 306