Table of Contents
We begin another article on the Standard metagame by letting you know that from this column onwards, this work will become a weekly section.
Unlike the work we do in our tier list, in the report, we always take into account two factors that define our data: POT and WOT.
- POT: Popularity over time tells us how a specific archetype has increased or decreased in terms of the number of players who decide to make it their choice when playing ranked games.
- WOT: Winrate over time gives us a clearer picture of the archetypes that are beginning to become a better or worse option due to their results day by day.
How these factors affect the archetypes of the current meta will be something we will discover in the following paragraphs.
We will analyze all decks with a popularity greater than 5% and their relevant movements considering the previously mentioned factors.
If an archetype is to be considered in this work, it must reach at least 1% of the total games taken into account for this work as of the date of this article. Likewise, this work uses popularity and win rate data of the Bo3 ranked queue in MTG Arena.
Popularity – March Week 4
| Archetype | Popularity Over Time |
|---|---|
| Dimir Midrange | 16.4% |
| Boros Convoke | 11.7% |
| Golgari Midrange | 9.9% |
| Esper Midrange | 9.4% |
| Azorius Control | 7.7% |
| 5-Color Domain | 6.3% |
| Mono-Red Aggro | 3.6% |
| 4-Color Reanimator | 3.1% |
| Orzhov Midrange | 2.4% |
| Gruul Aggro | 2.1% |
| Bant Toxic | 2.0% |
| Azorius Mentor | 1.7% |
| Rakdos Aggro | 1.6% |
| Esper Control | 1.6% |
| Simic Artifacts | 1.0% |
Winrates – March Week 4
| Archetype | Winrate |
|---|---|
| Simic Artifacts | 61.5% |
| Dimir Midrange | 59.8% |
| Rakdos Aggro | 58.1% |
| Boros Convoke | 56.7% |
| 5-Color Domain | 56.3% |
| Mono-Red Aggro | 55.7% |
| Azorius Mentor | 54.7% |
| Gruul Aggro | 54.4% |
| Esper Midrange | 54.2% |
| Bant Toxic | 53.9% |
| Golgari Midrange | 53.7% |
| Azorius Control | 53.0% |
| 4-Color Reanimator | 51.2% |
| Esper Control | 50.2% |
| Orzhov Midrange | 49.8% |
It is important to note the correlation between both tables. For an archetype to be considered part of the meta, it must exceed from my point of view at least 1% of total popularity. However, among all the archetypes that exceed this number, not all have a winning percentage that accredits them as Tier 1.
We mentioned the 15 archetypes with this popularity of 1% or higher, that is, those that are part of the real meta, and ordered them by their winning percentage in the second table.
Let’s don’t forget:
- Tier 1: 55.0%+ win rate.
- Tier 2: 52.5% – 54.9% win rate.
- Tier 3: 51.0% – 52.4% win rate
There are other archetypes in our Tier Lists that, although slightly below 1%, have been mentioned because their winning percentage is relevant enough to be archetypes capable of standing up to the meta and have at least 900+ games.
Let’s analyze the most popular archetypes and their most successful lists.
The last time we analyzed the archetypes in order of popularity. From now on we will also discuss the most notable movements or archetypes that remain solid over time.
Dimir Midrange
Dimir Midrange – MTGO Challenge 32 andrw1232 1st Place
by Bohe
Standard
Midrange
best of 3
6 mythic
29 rare
15 uncommon
10 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (24)
Lands (25)
60 Cards
$444.66
Sideboard
15 Cards
$67.21
Popularity Over Time
I think this was just a matter of time. A few weeks ago I mentioned that this archetype was a few wins in paper tournaments away from being positioned as one of the favorites.
At that point, I said that if the deck’s popularity had dropped slightly at the beginning of February it was due to the unimpressive playing style and the fact that its competitive results might not be too many.
This does not mean that they did not exist, however they were few. Players have been opening their eyes and today Dimir has positioned itself as the deck to beat. If you are participating in a tournament soon, you better have this match prepared.
Winrate Over Time
The ups and downs of this graph could make it seem like the archetype is unstable. It’s quite the opposite. If we look closely, the deck’s winning percentage remains between 60 and 55 percent for 5 months.
This speaks to how strong the archetype is, especially when it is the most played deck. There are few decks that, being the most played, manage to maintain this percentage of victories since the rule implies that generally when a deck falls into the hands of a majority, its win percentage decreases. With Dimir it has been the opposite, either it rises or it remains in a band of notorious strength.
Simic Artifacts
Simic Artifacts – RCQ Brian Flynn 8th Place
by Bohe
Standard
Aggro
best of 3
6 mythic
31 rare
14 uncommon
9 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (24)
Sorceries (2)
Lands (22)
60 Cards
$371.5
Sideboard
15 Cards
$46.13
Popularity Over Time
What a curious case that of Simic. This archetype motivated me to change the way I write these reports. I usually looked at the most popular archetypes, those considered the meta per se. However, continuing to do so would sometimes result in the most winning decks being left out of the report.
I think mentioning even briefly some of these decks is vital for these reports even if they are not favorites or are unpopular decks.
The graph doesn’t let me lie. When the deck was born in mid-November with the release of Lost Caverns of Ixalan it quickly gained popularity. However, this was nothing more than a flame lit with fuel that consumed quickly.
The players who chose this archetype continue to decline, something completely understandable. Many other archetypes are more appealing and we have many new cards to try. However, I hope this work makes it clear what this deck is capable of achieving. To do this you only need to look at the following graph.
Winrate Over Time
This archetype has had moments where its winning percentage places it in the Tier 2 group. However, when the players truly devoted to the archetype are the ones who remain playing this strategy, the table reflects clearly what happens.
There aren’t many decks that can place above 60% wins like Simic has done on 3 occasions in recent months, even after the release of MKM. It is not a simple deck, although it may seem that way. If you take the time with it, you can surely be pleasantly surprised. The numbers don’t let me lie.
Rakdos Aggro
Rakdos Aggro – MTGO Challenge Linden_43 9th Place
by Bohe
Standard
Aggro
best of 3
13 mythic
26 rare
15 uncommon
6 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (25)
Lands (25)
60 Cards
$732.1
Sideboard
15 Cards
$102.13
Popularity Over Time
The Rakdos situation is a case that goes beyond the archetype itself. The problem seems to me to be more fundamental, based on the color combination in the format.
This pair of colors has been able to dominate strongly not so long ago. Rakdos with Etlali, Primal Conqueror AKA Rakdos Reanimator is undoubtedly a powerful deck. I could say the same about Rakdos Discover. And that is exactly the problem. In recent months there have been so many good variants of Rakdos that it was difficult to decide which is the best option, which prevents this color combination from solidifying.
Winrate Over Time
The movements in Rakdos Aggro’s win rate are much more violent. This falls largely on what I just mentioned in the previous section. It is clear that when Rakdos remains with a solid list and the changes to it are slight to none, the situation improves for the archetype.
I can say it another way. I think we know the best cards to play Rakdos in Standard. There is no need to discover the wheel in this color combination. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that we don’t innovate or create new archetypes or variations of existing archetypes, but, if Rakdos Aggro has already reached two peaks close to 60% win percentage in the post-MKM period, it is quite clear which Rakdos iteration is quite capable of competing against Tier 1s.
Linden_43 gives us the perfect example. Eighth place on March 29 in a tournament of 54 people and 9th place on 30th in a tournament of 85, two highly competitive MTGO Challenges, where the best of the best of digital Magic meets. The changes between one tournament and another were exclusively on the sideboard.
Similar to Simic Aggro but with its nuances. What do you think about it? Let me know in the comments at the end of the article.
Boros Convoke
Boros Convoke – MTGO Challenge GengsKhan 6th Place
by Bohe
Standard
Aggro
best of 3
3 mythic
25 rare
18 uncommon
14 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (30)
Sorceries (4)
Enchantments (4)
Lands (22)
60 Cards
$266.16
Sideboard
15 Cards
$47.41
Popularity Over Time
We can’t stop talking about the common suspects. Boros Convoke has found its balance point, in popularity and win rate.
A solid archetype, with very explosive outputs that demand an immediate response. The lists of this archetype have already reached a point where Boros players are clear about what cards they want to play and how they are going to respond to the current meta. This irons out the graphics, letting us know that this deck is already a clear Tier 1 for the remainder of the current format.
I say this because, with the rotation that will happen at the release of Outlaws of Thunder Junction, the archetype will lose Voldaren Epicure, the centerpiece of one of the best openings of the deck. The release of the Novice Inspector gave this archetype the strength to position itself as a true Tier 1. Eight turn 1 cards that put an artifact into play are what this deck needs.
We’ll see what happens with the launch of the new set since I think getting another drop 1 to replace the Voldaren Epicure is decisive for the survival of the archetype at the top of the table.
Winrate Over Time
Without a doubt, the existence of the aforementioned Novice Inspector put many people’s eyes on the archetype. Its popularity skyrocketed, and its winning percentage increased. It was just a matter of time for the metagame to self-regulate and put this archetype in the place it deserved, clearly at the top of the table alongside the Tier 1s, but not above 60% wins which would certainly be too much.
I don’t expect any major changes for this deck until the new set release. If you are going to participate in a relevant tournament or want to rank in Arena, Boros is a great option if you like the style of play. If not, you better be prepared to play against him.
Golgari Midrange
Golgari Midrange – Pizza Box Open Applechips 4th Place
by Bohe
Standard
Midrange
best of 3
14 mythic
28 rare
12 uncommon
6 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (21)
Lands (25)
60 Cards
$728.14
Sideboard
15 Cards
$52.13
Popularity Over Time
Golgari is an interesting case to analyze. Many professional players chose it for high-level competitive tournaments when the Mosswood Dreadknight was released in Wilds of Eldrine. His popularity decreased over time but I have said it before, when The Rock is part of the meta, his popularity is usually around 5-10%.
However, it has surpassed that mark and it seems like it will remain closer to 10% than 5%. This clarifies that many players opt for an archetype that “has no bad matchups.” It certainly can be some matchups more complicated than others, that’s for sure. However, there is a reason why Sol Malka, creator of this archetype, calls it the way I call it. “The Rock and His Millions” can stand against anyone.
Winrate Over Time
The development of a rating curve for a constructed archetype like Golgari in this Standard is not surprising. Some decks tend to have very high peaks, positioning themselves close to 60% of victories, or on the contrary, not approaching 55%. This speaks to decks that have very favorable or very unfavorable matchups.
On the contrary, a victory curve that tightly hugs 55% allows us to see that Golgari is a tremendously solid option capable of facing anyone without fear. Personally, this is one of my favorite styles of play. Being able to sit every round without fear of my opponent having a deck that can overtake me, and knowing that whoever it is, I can grind my way to victory.
End Step
Popularity and winning percentage are metrics that go hand in hand when preparing for your next competition or when it’s time to choose which deck to play.
Looking at which deck has the highest number of wins is important, but we can’t just rely on this. In the same way, thinking only about choosing or preparing for the most popular decks would be blinding our spectrum.
Suppose we want to be prepared to face a real competitive environment. In that case, analyzing all the variants makes this preparation more complete and can undoubtedly reward your effort much better.
Let us know your thoughts on this and any other MTG-related topics in the MTG Arena Community Discord, on my Twitter, and in the comment section of this article.
Don’t forget that I have started providing personal coaching services for Magic the Gathering and Marvel Snap. If you want to contact me, look for me:
- On Discord as bohettv
- On my Twitter
- Via email at [email protected]
- On Twitch
Thank you so much for reaching this last paragraph and remember; don’t forget to smile every day; it surely makes a difference.
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Bohe
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