Hey everyone! We’re about to hit the Arena Open for Modern Horizons 3 this weekend so you know what that means. That’s right, it’s time for me to drop all of the Accumulated Knowledge I’ve gathered on the format so you’ll be prepared to crush the competition. Enough with this terrible introduction (with the number of articles I write, they can’t all be winners) and on with the show.
Powerful cards to MTG Arena releases on June 11, 2024 for Timeless and Historic formats! Learn all about Modern Horizons 3 and find all our related articles in our hub.
Key Ideas of Modern Horizons 3 Draft
The very first thing you need to understand about this set is how poorly the data reflects the actual truth in the format. I’ve been having this talk with a lot of my drafting buddies lately. There are so many cards that the data says are good that are actually filler and ones that I’m happily slamming early that it says aren’t great. I’m not going to get into the lists of them here because we have a lot to cover so I’m going to focus on the concept.
There are a lot of trap cards in the set and a lot of undervalued cards. You need to step back from what the data is telling you and ask yourself the right questions. Especially after the first few picks, your individual pick order should massively change based upon which lane you are in.
It’s not just “I’m in this archetype”, its “Which card provides the most synergy or power boost along with the cards I currently have”. That means that even breaking the data down to a color pair and by player level is going to be far less valuable. The overall power level in this set is insane so you’re not going to be that far off as long as you are focused on doing what your specific deck is doing better than what other decks are doing.
This is a very focused set and the draft tables are usually going to shake out to something like 3-4 Eldrazi decks with a high-power level that are struggling for cards twenty to twenty-three, an artifact deck, an energy deck, an aggressive white based deck (there can often be two of these), and a grindy black deck. Of course, that requires everyone at the table to find their lane and stick to it. One of the problems we’ve run across is that it feels like almost every draft seat is either on easy mode or a trainwreck based on the people around you.
One of the big points that we’ve been debating about is whether you should stick to your guns forcing your lane or “draft the hard way”. It really depends on what your first few picks were. If you already have some of the key cards that aren’t as flexible in other archetypes, you are usually better off just trying to carve that lane out even against some resistance. If you have mostly genericly good cards that could still play a part in a pivot, you should probably be drafting the hard way.
The next point you need to know is that Writhing Chrysalis was clearly a mistake at common and you should probably be splashing it in a lot of decks. You probably already knew that, but the important part is that you shouldn’t be train wrecking drafts just to force it into your deck. From the previous table breakdown, would you rather be playing the struggling to hit playables deck or be the only one in your lane?
To quote Mike Tyson, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” That is a great way to consider how your deck is planning to win. What do you do when they drop a Writhing Chrysalis or similar Eldrazi. Can you still win through that? Do you have proper removal to deal with that situation? If not, then you probably need to modify your plan a bit during the draft.
Format Speed
This format is off the charts fast. Yeah, we’re talking faster than ONE fast. That may seem odd in a format where a lot of people are planning on dropping massive eldritch horrors, but everything is accelerated out so fast that it ends games with a swiftness. I’ve already had a bunch of turn five kills so be prepared.
It is also right up there as far as highest Game Win Rate on the Play which typically has a positive correlation with being a faster format. That means that rolling the die is a real skill here.
Archetype Tiers
Oddly enough, I only have this set broken down into three tiers of archetypes. It’s a reflection of the parity of the format as long as the drafts are running smoothly.
Everything’s Coming Up Milhouse Tier
The pure open Eldrazi decks are the only thing that I consider at the tippy top of the game. They are the Magical Christmas land that actually still happens in some drafts. These are when you get passed Writhing Chrysalis and all the other platinum hits for the deck without having to fight for them. It is usually in some combination of the Temur colors. You’re not struggling for those last few cards or trying to justify playing a few that are better in other archetypes because you have it all.
I’ve had quite a few of these already and they didn’t really feel fair. As my buddy Floridamun described one, “I think it will trophy, but it will be boring” There were a few other words in there, but I’ll save my editor the time of removing them.
Reality Tier
Contrary to what you have heard, there is a ton of parity to the archetypes in this set. When I don’t get one of the busted decks, I am perfectly happy drafting any of these archetypes provided that they are available.
This is where most of those decks that I was talking about earlier fall into. The great high-end, but not all there Eldrazi decks, the white based aggro decks (Azorius, Boros, Orzhov, or Selesnya), the Cranial Ram artifact deck, the I opened Aether Revolt energy deck, and the grindy black decks (Dimir filled with Sneaky Snackers or Golgari value).
This might seem like a huge grouping, but it is emphasizing that being in the correct lane for your seat is the most important aspect here. As I said earlier, that can mean forcing something or letting things fall into place based off of the table.
Hoping to Break Even Tier
This is not meant to kick someone when they are down, but this is a realistic problem in this set. Sometimes you find the right lane, do everything perfectly, but don’t get the key cards for your deck. There is a massive difference between the I got all the Cranial Rams artifact deck and the ones without them. Same thing with the energy deck when it doesn’t end up with Aether Revolt or enough payoffs.
That might sound rather depressing, but so far that is the reality of the format. The most important thing in the draft is to recognize the correct lane, but even then, it can come down to the right cards being opened. This is, of course, exasperated by Play Boosters.
Tips and Tricks
My land rules for MDFCs are that if I want to actively cast the spell (Stump Stomp) then I count it as a spell slot, but if it’s a card that I look like as a nice upside if I draw it late (Disciple of Freyalise) I count it as a land slot. If they are somewhere in between, then I usually count three MDFCs as two lands.
People have been too low on the dual land MDFCs. I’m baffled that some people have been valuing them lower than they would a normal tapped dual.
The common Landscapes are what makes the format tick. They open up splashes, enable Eldrazi, and add consistency to your deck. You shouldn’t be looking at one in your colors and thinking “Oh that will wheel”.
So many of the cards in this set are contextual. Taking a few extra moments in the draft or during deck building to consider synergies can pay off big time.
Malevolent Rumble is an often underappreciated card that adds constancy with a bit of ramp thrown in. You can usually get them for a lower investment than the other two drop ramp spells letting you use your early picks on the premium payoffs.
Nyxborn Hydra is a great way to force your opponent to deal with a big trampling reach creature twice.
Sneaky Snacker and Serum Visionary are two cards that are performing above their reputation. Everyone is talking about Writhing Chrysalis, but these are some other premium commons that people aren’t discussing enough.
Bespoke Battlewagon is another card that I feel is underrated. The threat of it can hold a lot of stuff back while building up various forms of advantage. It’s not something you are looking to pick one, but your energy decks will be thrilled having this.
Optimizing your deck to ensure Amped Raptor hits is a good way to feel like you won the game on turn two. Tajoordan had a sweet version where almost his entire deck was two drops, but casting something like Tune the Narrative is another way to blow up on two.
My favorite Pack One, Pick One in the set is Aether Revolt. It is so insane if you have the opportunity to spend your whole draft building around it. While there might be more individually powerful cards, you are much less likely to have to fight over the energy deck.
One of the big “I need to change my evaluation mid-draft” cards is Metastatic Evangel. It can either take over a game or do absolutely nothing.
The Retrofitted Transmogrant and Accursed Marauder train is a great way to setup your grindy black decks.
Cranial Ram might be the key common for the artifact deck, but Refurbished Familiar is right up there as well.
There is a ton of value waiting to be had by adding +1+1 counters for additional triggers off of Evolution Witness and Fetid Gargantua.
Janky removal such as Utter Insignificance performs much better in a format where massive monsters abound.
There are enough constructed filler cards and fixing lands in the set that you do need to watch out that you make playables. That leaves little room for picking up sideboard cards, but one you want to try to pick up is Meltdown as it completely obliterates some decks.
I thought this was obvious, but I keep seeing them. I’ll say this here and again later, stop playing the Medallions.
Sweepers
Toxic Deluge is the best sweeper effect in the format. It’s splashable, cheap, and potentially a Plague Wind situation. The only down sides of it are that you do need life to play it and it can be rough against bestow creatures.
Wrath of the Skies is the other big boom running around. It can get a bit pricy if they aren’t running other energy sources, but it’s good to keep in mind.
Similar to all Pyroclasm spells, Ral and the Implicit Maze will vary heavily in effectiveness. Be careful about how you build your board against a red deck so it doesn’t obliterate you.
Ugin's Binding can sweep up one side of the board often ending the game in the deal, but at least it’s a mythic and really only seen in the Eldrazi decks.
Combat Tricks
Gift of the Viper is an interesting combat trick that has a bit more potential than I see people using it for. It can be used to end the game on a large trampler by giving it Deathtouch or using an Eldazi Spawn to turn it into a Swords to Plowshares.
Revitalizing Repast can be a massive beating and is difficult to play around since it is so cheap.
Siege Smash and Wing It are the basic pump spells of the format with a bit of extra utility. I should include Fowl Strike here as well since it is used for the Reinforce 2 far more often than to kill a flyer.
Collective Resistance can be a major blowout if it gets to win a combat while picking off a thing or two.
I’m going to bring up Signature Slam as a combat trick because similar to Clear Shot, it can win a combat while being a removal spell.
Counterspells
Aether Spike is a great thing to keep in mind through playing an extra land before playing a spell or ordering your spells in a different manner to avoid it.
I have already taken many lives with Hope-Ender Coatl and it remains something that you should be cognizant of because counter your Eldrazi and get a Wind Drake for three mana feels filthy every time you get away with it.
Consign to Memory was considered a sideboard card coming into the format, but the prevalence of so many devoid cards such as Writhing Chrysalis has let it sneak its way into some bo1 decks.
Flare of Denial is the newest Force of Will variation. It’s mostly a Cancel with upside. If they gain priority when you cast a spell while they are tapped out and have a blue creature, you know that it’s most likely this.
Invert Polarity might be the card I hate the most in the set. It’s very good, but the coin flip often determines who wins the game. Look out for it if they are holding up specifically UUR.
Technically I have to mention Null Elemental Blast, but I really doubt anyone is going to be playing that unless it’s post sideboard.
Strix Serenade is another one that it is highly doubtful you ever run into but weirder stuff has happened.
Bombs
These are the Pack One Pick One (p1p1) no doubt, windmill slam, just take them rares of the set. These are not in rank order, just take these over any non-mythic uncommon or common. Even though it’s a common, I probably should have put Writhing Chrysalis in here because I’m taking it pick one all the time.
Mythic Uncommons
These might be uncommons, but they sure don’t play like they are.
Do Not Draft List
These are the cards that you really shouldn’t try to talk yourself into. Just let them live peacefully in the sideboard (preferably someone elses).
Wrap Up
Thanks for reading! Hopefully this helps you score some of that sweet WotC cash in the Arena Open. I’ll be back in a few days with some Midweek Magic decks for you. Until then, stay classy people!
I’m always open to feedback, let me know what you loved, what you hated, or just send dog pics. You can contact me at:
