Table of Contents
We’ve thoroughly reviewed the Standard metagame since the release of Karlov Manor to create our updated tier lists for Bo1 and Bo3.
These works have allowed us to place the archetypes in an order that clarifies their strength about the rest of the competitive environment. Now we will rank the archetypes by popularity and win rate combined. Also, we will explore a broader picture by looking at other factors: POT and WOT.
- POT: Popularity over time tells us how a specific archetype has increased or decreased in terms of the number of players who decide to make it their choice when playing ranked games.
- WOT: Winrate over time gives us a clearer picture of the archetypes that are beginning to become a better or worse option due to their results day by day.
How do these factors relate to the archetypes discussed in our Tier Lists? Let’s find out together in the following paragraphs. We will analyze every deck with over 5.0% popularity and their relevant movements in detail, but first, let’s crunch the numbers of the popularity and winning percentage of every archetype over 1% of the total registered games updated as of the date of this article.
This work will take into account the popularity and winrate of the Bo3 ranked queue in MTG Arena.
Popularity – February Week 3
| Archetype | Popularity Over Time |
|---|---|
| Boros Convoke | 16.1% |
| Azorius Control | 13.8% |
| Esper Midrange | 8.3% |
| Golgari Midrange | 6.8% |
| 4-Color Domain | 6.2% |
| Dimir Midrange | 5.9% |
| Mono-Red Aggro | 5.1% |
| Rakdos Midrange | 3.3% |
| Bant Toxic | 2.7% |
| Esper Control | 2.3% |
| Rakdos Aggro | 1.8% |
| Azorius Mentor | 1.5% |
| Simic Artifacts | 1.5% |
| Orzhov Amalia | 1.1% |
Winrates – February Week 3
| Archetype | Winrate |
|---|---|
| 4-Color Domain | 58.9% |
| Bant Toxic | 58.0% |
| Simic Artifacts | 57.3% |
| Azorius Control | 57.3% |
| Rakdos Aggro | 56.8% |
| Azorius Mentor | 56.6% |
| Esper Midrange | 56.1% |
| Golgari Midrange | 55.8% |
| Dimir Midrange | 55.2% |
| Mono-Red Aggro | 55.1% |
| Boros Convoke | 54.9% |
| Orzhov Clerics | 50.2% |
| Rakdos Midrange | 48.4% |
| Esper Control | 46.3% |
It is important to note the correlation between both tables. For an archetype to be considered part of the meta, from my perspective it must exceed at least 1% of total popularity. However, among all the archetypes that exceed this number, not all have a winning percentage that accredits them as Tier 1.
What we have done here is to mention the 14 archetypes with this popularity of 1% or higher, that is, those that are part of the real meta, and order them by their winning percentage in the second table.
Let’s don’t forget:
- Tier 1: 55.0%+ win rate.
- Tier 2: 52.5% – 54.9% win rate.
- Tier 3: 51.0% – 52.4% win rate
There are other archetypes that I have mentioned in our Tier Lists that, although they are slightly below 1%, have been mentioned because their winning percentage is relevant enough to be archetypes capable of standing up to the meta and have at least 900 games in total.
Boros Convoke
Boros Convoke – $5K Open – Bill Comminos 12th Place
by Bohe
Standard
Aggro
best of 3
3 mythic
28 rare
15 uncommon
14 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (27)
Sorceries (4)
Lands (22)
60 Cards
$327.18
Sideboard
15 Cards
$81.57
Popularity Over Time
This graph shows how the archetype had a starting point with the launch of Lost Caverns of Ixalan. Certainly, the existence of Warden of the Inner Sky makes us think about a strategy around this style of game.
It was not enough to position the archetype on the competitive map. However, the difference is noticeable from the launch of MKM marked with the blue line. Warleader's Call is a huge rare for the archetype, but what we need to be clear about is that the simple technical reprint of Thraben Inspectorin the form of the Novice Inspector is what has propelled this archetype to new heights.
It started with 13.3% popularity at the launch of MKM in Arena and had its highest point on February 13 with 18.7% of the meta. That number is monstrous! Almost a fifth of the competitive environment was made up of a single archetype.
As of the date of this article, the archetype sits at 16.1%. It’s still a very relevant number, but it seems that it has already reached its ceiling.
Winrate Over Time
The movement in Boros Convoke’s win rate has a logical answer. The greater the number of players, the lower the winning percentage in general terms.
It is precisely in this metric where the differentiator is born between broken decks and those that are Tier 1 fairly, so to speak.
An archetype has to be truly out of control for it to maintain or even raise its win rate if more players decide to give it a try. Does this mean that Boros is going to fall even further down to tier 2? Probably not. Or at least it will be on the limit. With a 54.9% winning percentage in Bo3, it is on the border between being a Tier 1 and Tier 2. As long as popularity continues to support it, I think it will remain a serious contender.
Azorius Control
UW Control @ Big Magic 8th place Sangjoon Kong
by Bohe
Standard
Control
best of 3
4 mythic
34 rare
10 uncommon
12 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Planeswalkers (4)
Creatures (2)
Instants (18)
Enchantments (4)
Lands (27)
60 Cards
$336.64
Sideboard
15 Cards
$24.23
Popularity Over Time
In Mexico, we would say that I look like a “disco rayado” a scratched disc for saying this once again. Nevertheless, after our Bo1 and Bo3 tier lists and looking at the charts, there’s no clearer way to show that No More Lies is probably MKM’s best card, per se.
Although the archetype has had its spontaneous appearances, since the last quarter of last year to date it had not managed to be minimally relevant until the launch of MKM.
It started with 5.7% popularity and at the time of this article it is positioned as the second most popular deck with 13.8% of the field in the Bo3 qualifying queue.
In my opinion, it’s about to reach its peak. It is true that No More Lies is a powerful tool, and that other new options are being tested such as Ezrim, Agency Chief, or Intruder on the Mind, however, several hyper-aggressive decks are floating around and they can put in puts pressure on slower decks if they don’t find the right answers in time.
Winrate Over Time
The stat is already reaching a flattening phase and from my perspective is reaching a point of stability in the current meta.
It started with 52.8%, a quite respectable number that indicated that the archetype would be viable at the start. A couple of weeks later it’s clear that after testing various builds, the archetype has excelled, achieving a 57.3% win rate in Bo3. This places it in the 4 most winning archetypes in said qualifying queue. Now, making the same point that we mentioned when we talked about Boros. That it maintains these win numbers while being almost as popular as Convoke should make it clear which of the two decks will remain a solid Tier 1 in the long run.
Esper Midrange
Esper Midrange – $5K Open RCQ DH 3rd Place by Andrew Hakenew
by Bohe
Historic
best of 3
10 mythic
35 rare
11 uncommon
4 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Planeswalkers (2)
Creatures (16)
Lands (26)
60 Cards
$463.26
Sideboard
15 Cards
$47.67
Popularity Over Time
The old public enemy number today has become part of the block that competes at the head of the race.
In a way, when he was in his iteration of Esper Legends and played Plaza of Heroes he could almost be called Tier 0. The Popularity and win rate graphs by time do not lie.
The lack of cards that directly strengthen the strategy centered around the legendary type has caused the archetype to mutate. Certainly, some legends like Lord Skitter, Sewer King have reached the archetype but have not stayed long. And this is not specifically a bad thing. Before the deck, it could have practically been considered an Aggro deck. It now revolves around a slightly heavier curve. Aclazotz, Deepest Betrayalis a clear example of this.
The only legend that has been added to the archetype in the last two sets, but without a doubt one of the best cards in the deck nowadays. From 7.6 to 8.3% popularity during the last month seems like the archetype has already found its niche of players.
I think the popularity of decks today is something we need to look at carefully. It seems to me that making the change to Standard from 2 to 3 years has been a success. The diversity of the current meta and examples like this are proof of this.
Winrate Over Time
That the archetype was tenths away from reaching a 70% winrate a little before the release of Ixalan was absurd. Unhealthy numbers, especially with the huge number of players choosing the archetype at all levels of play.
Today it is an archetype positioned in Tier 1, there is no doubt about that. However, their numbers are already much healthier. With around 56% wins, he will remain in the top 4 for a long time to come. We’ll see what Outlaws of Thunder Junction holds.
Golgari Midrange
Golgari Midrage – Rebound Big Magic 13th Place Riiryu
by Bohe
Standard
Midrange
best of 3
3 mythic
38 rare
7 uncommon
12 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (22)
Lands (25)
60 Cards
$423.58
Sideboard
15 Cards
$79.89
Popularity Over Time
The peak moment of this archetype was a long time ago. When Wilds of Eldraine catapulted it to the tier list thanks to the printing of the Mosswood Dreadknight.
It was so popular at the time that several pro-players considered it the best option for top-level competitive tournaments. The truth is that an archetype like The Rock is usually found in a range close to 5-10% popularity when it is part of the meta.
The reason for this is his natural way of developing and adapting to the metagame. It doesn’t usually have bad matchups and can stand up to practically any other archetype. However, in the same way, it is not an archetype that usually has extremely favorable games.
From 6.4 to 6.8% popularity since the launch of MKM. This metric gives us a clear indication and lets us know that although it may go up slightly, it will remain between the numbers that I indicated in the previous paragraph.
If some other permanents that are difficult to remove enter the meta and Assassin's Trophystart to become a better card despite the drawback of giving one land to the opponent, it’s likely to return to popularity numbers close to Eldraine around 10%.
Winrate Over Time
The victories of a deck like The Rock lie in the strength of its options against the current environment.
In this sense, I think there are enough good Black and Green cards to face many of the strategies that are placed as Tier 1 in the current meta, both in Bo1 and Bo3. That is why I believe that the deck’s current 55.8% victory rate in Bo3 is enough for it to stop being the leader in Tier 2 and be part of the ecosystem of Tier 1 decks. I even believe that over time Some adjustments could be good enough to generate a list optimized for the new MKM cards and be placed on the podium of the 3 best decks. It’s close enough already.
4-Color Domain
4/5-Color Domain – Azure Cup 1st Place by Takashi Narita
by Bohe
Standard
Midrange
best of 3
12 mythic
33 rare
6 uncommon
9 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Planeswalkers (1)
Creatures (13)
Enchantments (8)
Lands (26)
60 Cards
$637.92
Sideboard
15 Cards
$29.61
Popularity Over Time
With only one new card entering the archetype in the last two sets, it certainly seems like people have grown tired of Domain.
Don’t get me wrong, 6.2% of the field is undoubtedly a relevant number. However, if we look at the numbers before Ixalan’s release, being above 20% is clearly out of control.
And similar to what we talked about with Esper. As time goes on, the fact that Standard is now a broader format, even if just for a year, makes things diversify a bit. The release of new sets, new cards, the time of playing the same archetype over and over again. Everything adds up to making the environment much healthier than at the beginning of 2023.
The self-regulation of formats tends to occur in more optimal ways the longer it’s in force. It is when this does not happen after a considerable amount of time that card banning becomes necessary. Fortunately, Esper and Domain show us that at the moment it does not seem to be necessary.
Winrate Over Time
All of the above doesn’t change the fact that 4-Color Domain is still one of the best decks in Standard today.
And not only that, as of this writing it is the winningest archetype in the Bo3 ranked queue in Standard with a 58.9% win rate. The difference is that today at least 5 other archetypes have a win percentage higher than 55%. This makes me think that the format will remain healthy and stable, at least for some time. A new archetype would have to be born that we don’t know yet or something extraordinary would have to happen in Outlaws of Thunder Junction to put things in emergency mode.
Meanwhile, the 4-Color Domain’s curve strength is going to be good enough to stay in Tier 1, at least until rotation, where it loses to Topiary Stomper. There we’ll have to see what happens.
Dimir Midrange
Dimir Aggro Cup MKM @ Big Magic 1st Place Yutaro Tokuyama
by Bohe
Standard
Aggro
best of 3
6 mythic
28 rare
17 uncommon
9 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (22)
Lands (25)
60 Cards
$453.9
Sideboard
15 Cards
$35.75
Despite having the vast majority of its cards since the release of Lost Caverns of Ixalan, the popularity of this archetype has been driven strictly by great results in paper tournaments.
In December, the archetype achieved important results, and this made it position itself strongly among the best decks at the beginning of the year. Now, during the end of January and beginning of February this popularity gradually fell, and it is not surprising. The deck is quite solid and can adapt its play style as the opponent demands. However, it is not a deck that generates extraordinary plays, or is eye-catching, so to speak, which makes me think that it is gradually losing popularity and its results on paper are not very outstanding.
Winrate Over Time
And don’t get me wrong. The deck achieved several top 8 and top 4 finishes in relevant tournaments during this time, but it was not until February 11 that it returned to the spotlight by winning a 448-person tournament in Japan.
Few decks have shown such strength in the format as Dimir has. Maintaining an average of more than 55% wins throughout a quarter is no small feat. I’m surprised it’s not a more popular deck. But as I said, it is not an attractive-looking deck. At least from my perspective, it seems to me that people looking at the lists can overlook the power of the archetype itself.
In addition, I find it somewhat complicated to play optimally and sensitive to errors. If despite this the winning percentage is so good, it is for a good reason.
Mono-Red Aggro
Mono Red Aggro – Rebound Big Magic Yosuke Yamada
by Bohe
Standard
Aggro
best of 3
4 mythic
13 rare
21 uncommon
22 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (20)
Instants (13)
Enchantments (4)
60 Cards
$66.22
Sideboard
15 Cards
$30.15
Popularity Over Time
Mono-Red is an archetype known for always reappearing strongly at the start of a new set. This is due to how easy it is to confront people who are trying new strategies or interesting cards with the new set in the most hyper-aggressive way possible.
Now, since the release of Ixalan, this has been the case, and Mono Red was positioned above 10% popularity, something that makes it a target in the competitive sideboard. That said, we can see that since the beginning of the month, its popularity has been decreasing. This may be because no card directly propels the archetype to maintain popularity.
Conventional lists could keep the archetype afloat and defeat people in the process of experimentation. However, when there are new cards for the archetype, the lists become destabilized and make people doubt the viability of the archetype if one does not obtain a strong result quickly.
From my perspective and as I have mentioned in the tier list. If this Yosuke Yamada list starts to become popular, I think that without a doubt players will start getting good results with Fugitive Codebreaker and Pyrotechnic Performer, which can make the popularity increase.
Winrate Over Time
Mono Red was stronger at the end of the previous year. However, being able to consistently maintain a win rate of 55.1% despite all the movements in the meta, the new cards, the various adaptations of this archetype, and other variables, make it clear that Mono Rojo is without a doubt a contender that you have to always keep in mind.
Now, if Azorius continues to take off as it is, Mono Red will gradually follow suit. It is without a doubt the archetype that would go hand in hand with a growth in popularity and winning percentages as long as Azorius Control has the slightest intention of dominating.
End Step
In our Tier List for Bo1 and Bo3, you can find all the archetypes that have a winning percentage greater than 51%. This makes it clear to us which decks are having success.
Now, in this meta report, the idea is that beyond knowing the comparison between the strengths of the archetypes, you can prepare your deck for your next competition or ranked game in Arena. For this you must always take into account the popularity of the archetype since, although they are factors that usually go hand in hand, we have already seen that on some occasions there are popular archetypes that fall to Tier 2, and other Tier 1 that are really strong but so unpopular that you are likely to encounter them less frequently.
In summary. The best start if you want to modify your list or sideboard to the current meta, try to take into account all the archetypes that achieve 5% or more popularity. This will certainly ensure that you are always prepared against the real competitive environment.
Let us know your thoughts on this and any other MTG-related topics in the MTG Arena Community Discord, on my Twitter, and in the comment section of this article.
Don’t forget that I have started providing personal coaching services for Magic the Gathering and Marvel Snap. If you want to contact me, look for me:
- On Discord as bohettv
- On my Twitter
- Via email at [email protected]
- On Twitch
Thank you so much for reaching this last paragraph and remember; don’t forget to smile every day; it surely makes a difference.
Premium >
Enjoy our content? Wish to support our work? Join our Premium community, get access to exclusive content, remove all advertisements, and more!
- No ads: Browse the entire website ad-free, both display and video.
- Exclusive Content: Instant access to all exclusive articles only for Premium members, at your fingertips.
- Support: All your contributions get directly reinvested into the website to increase your viewing experience!
- Discord: Join our Discord server, claim your Premium role and gain access to exclusive channels where you can learn in real time!
- Special offer: For a limited time, use coupon code L95WR9JOWV to get 50% off the Annual plan!
Bohe
Articles: 105More Articles
Bo3 Standard Metagame Tier List and Rankings
Bo1 Standard Metagame Tier List and Rankings
New Brews for Outlaws of Thunder Junction Standard and Alchemy
New Outlaws of Thunder Junction Standard Decks for Day 1
Top 5 New Timeless Decks for Outlaws of Thunder Junction Day 1
Top 5 New Historic Decks for Outlaws of Thunder Junction Day 1
Best Outlaws of Thunder Junction Cards for Standard and Alchemy
B/W Control Standard Bo1 Deck Guide
Timeless Meta Report – Best Decks for Timeless Metagame Challenge, New Metagame Changes & Show and Tell Discussion
Standard Meta Report – Best Decks April 2024 Week 1
Timeless Mono Black Necro Vampires Deck and Sideboard Guide
Two Brews for the Explorer Metagame Challenge
Explorer Meta Report – Best Decks Post-Murders at Karlov Manor
Alchemy Golgari Midrange Deck Guide
Best Alchemy Decks – Qualifier Play-In (Best of 1) – March 2024
