Theorycrafting the Wilds of Eldraine Standard Meta

Wilds of Eldraine is just around the corner. The current Standard might be the most affected out of all the competitive formats, but will it be affected enough to warrant any meaningful changes?

Which cycles are going to be played the most? Which mechanic is going to be most impactful? Will Dimir Midrange stay on top after the set’s release?

Let’s find out!

The Creature Lands

We’ve recently lost a very powerful cycle of lands. Den of the Bugbear, Hall of Storm Giants, Hive of the Eye Tyrant were all format-defining and slot into multiple strategies. In formats like Standard, historically the curve is relatively high and there isn’t much card selection to smooth out the draws. It all translates into naturally higher land counts. With that, you’re prone to flooding if your lands are just that – lands. The loss of those man lands was felt.

Now, we’re getting a full new cycles of Restless man lands. There are five of them and so they only cover a half of ten possible colour pairs in Magic. There are multiple implications of that fact.

In the past, manlands were of a single colour so virtually any deck could play them and they even got to choose which. In Dimir you could play Hive of Eye Tyrant or Hall of the Storm Giants – or both. In Rakdos – Hive or Den, or again both. Sometimes the question wasn’t even ‘if’ but ‘which.

Now, the colour restrictions are very real. When thinking of Standard I reckon Rakdos and Dimir immediately come to mind and neither of them got a man land! Mono Black is also a prominent strategy but then again – these are not mono coloured. Mono White? No. Mono Red? No. Azorius Soldiers? No. Selesnya Enchantments? Nope.

I don’t think it was by design but it seems like we’re at the crossroads where you either play manlands or…good decks.

However! This might be a real incentive to change the colours of the decks you play. Maybe mono colour strategies will not we incentivsed enough to venture into a secondary colour. Orzhov instead of the previous Mono White Midrange was already a thing so that’s even more of a reason to go down that route. I doubt Dimir will drop either of its colours but it might play a tertiary colour now? These lands are both payoffs and enablers so it’d fix mana at the same time.

Supposing some shells spring up and creature lands become more or less ubiquitous, it might further affect the cards that are being played. More pressure on instant speed removal and less value in planeswalkers that can always be attacked down.

Last but not least, I do think there is a power level discrepancy between them. As far as I’m concerned, the green ones are better thanks to their raw size. Restless Spire’s biggest advantage is a cheap activation cost but that will be used later in the game to both attack and play a removal spell rather than early, essentially wasting a turn.

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As you can see, the presence of these lands will affect deckbuilding and gameplay greatly. I am super happy for this inclusion in the format since it’s far from game breaking but still impactful. A+ from me.

Artifact Ramp

Here I want to talk about one card and one card only – The Irencrag It has been a very long time since we’ve had a colorless two-mana ramp effect in Standard. Most recently we had The Celestuswhich saw play, much more at the beginning and then increasingly less with time.

Why is that a big thing?

The main reason is that a turn two The Irencragmeans you can play a four-drop on turn three. Crucially, this Standard environment revolves around four drops a lot.

Memory Deluge, The Wandering Emperor and Sheoldred, the Apocalypse are just a few of those examples. Being able to deploy them as soon as turn three changes the texture of the game completely.

If we know factor in whether you’re on the play or draw, it exponentially emphasises its impact. A turn three Sheoldred on the play will stare down a two-drop of the opponent’s. I’ve got Shelly, you’ve got Thalia, Guardian of Thraben That’s not a fair fight, is it.

We will see how it’s going to be adopted but I expect all the go-long strategies to play a couple of copies. Unfortunately, you can’t snap off full four, as it’s legendary. On the flipside though, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s impact is so big that you’d rather risk drawing multiples than not having it on turn two, hence actually registering a full playset.

New Mechanics

With the new set, we’re getting a bunch of new mechanics – Adventure, Roles, Bargain. Are they going to impact Standard? I think so – to an extent.

Currently, Standard is largely a format where you play good cards in given colours, where synergies are more of an afterthought. Dimir is just a collection of good black and good blue cards, so is 5c Ramp or Mono Black.

I don’t expect now Bargain decks or Adventure decks. There is no meaningful support to go all in on those.

However, I think they might slot in into existing decks giving them a bit of an upgrade.

Roles will be welcome in Selesnya Enchantments by the virtue of how the mechanic works.

Bargain might revitalise some token strategies or create new synergies. It might be a way to convert your now-useless one-drop later in the game. Creating game objects might now be a viable tactic.

Adventures will have to be good on their own but their dual nature provide an almost direct 2-for-1 effect and promote going long. If played in aggro strategies, they might allow to go toe-to-toe in the mid game against Midrange or Control. I wouldn’t want to see Virtue of Courage in the early game, with the looming threat of it being a game-ending spell in a couple of turns.

All in all, we won’t see dedicated decks based on the mechanics but I do fully expect some specific cards to slot into decks and give them another angle of attack.

The Dimir Problem

Let’s address the Dimir in the room. Will Dimir, and more broadly black strategies, still dominate the format?

Yes

<Roll the credits>

In all seriousness, I do believe that they will not stop being a force to be reckoned with. On the contrary, they’re getting even more toys.

Ashiok, Wicked Manipulator is a top-end planeswalker that goes wide.

Virtue of Persistence is a decent early removal spell that is an absolute game-ending enchantment in the later stages of the game.

Beseech the Mirrorallwos you to find and play cards like Liliana of the Veil or Sheoldred, the Apocalypse, making it even more consistend. For Bargain, you can always sacrifice Kaito Shizuki’s token or Tenacious Underdogwhich will come back anyways.

Rankle's Prank might be a cute one-of in Beseech decks for that extra utility in weird spots.

Even if not all of these cards (and multiple others unmentioned) slot into existing black shells, they’ve got stronger rather than weaker. There might be ways to try to attack them but by and large it’s still black domination. Paired with The Irencrag I’d prepare for a lot of turn-three Sheoldreds.

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End Step

My overall conclusion is that I am happy with what the set is bringing to the table. Between manlands, interesting mechanics, and generally powerful cards we will see a new-ish landscape. Much to my dissatisfaction though, the top of the metagame won’t reshuffle much and we will see more of the same, in just a tad different flavour.