Winners and Losers of Standard Rotation 2024

Hey all, Standard Rotation is just around the corner, the first rotation after the rotation schedule changed a year ago, happening with the release of Bloomburrow on July 30th on MTG Arena. This rotation will bring the first big shake up to Standard in almost two years with four sets leaving the format.

Those sets are:

• Innistrad: Midnight Hunt
• Innistrad: Crimson Vow
• Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty
• Streets of New Capenna

Here is what is staying:

• Dominaria United
• The Brothers' War
• Phyrexia: All Will Be One
• March of the Machine
• March of the Machine: Aftermath
• Wilds of Eldraine
• Lost Caverns of Ixalan
• Murders at Karlov Manor
• Outlaws of Thunder Junction
• Bloomburrow

So the question we are asking today is: which of the existing decks are the biggest winners from this rotation and which ones are the biggest losers? In other words, which decks are being left in the past, and which ones are we taking into the future? Let’s dive in and discuss.

General Rotation Notes

Most decks are keeping their core strategies but will be missing pieces here and there. Most of these pieces have some sort of functional replacement as Wilds of Eldraine through Outlaws of Thunder Junction were not designed with three-year standard in mind, meaning there are a lot of similar cards to replace rotating cards. Here are some examples:

• Brutal Cathar → Werefox Bodyguard
• Make Disappear →  Spell Stutter or Phantom Interference
• Memory Deluge → Farsight Ritual
• Graveyard Trespasser → Lord Skitter, Sewer King
• Play with Fire → Shock
• Ulvenwald Oddity → Axebane Ferox
• Streets of New Capenna Tri-Lands → Murders at Karlov Manor Surveil Lands

Mana bases are losing the New Capenna cycle lands, New Capenna sacrifice lands, the “Slow” lands from Innistrad Midnight Hunt and Crimson Vow, and the Channel lands from Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty, but otherwise will still be quite powerful and consistent.

Let’s now examine the top decks that are most and least impacted by rotation.

Biggest Winners

Dimir Midrange

Commonly Played Rotating Lands: Shipwreck Marsh, Otawara, Soaring City, Takenuma, Abandoned Mire

Commonly Played Rotating Non-Lands: Make Disappear, Path of Peril, Spell Pierce, Unlicensed Hearse

Dimir Midrange is my pick for the biggest winner with the upcoming rotation. The deck does lose a few lands, but Make Disappear can easily be replaced with Phantom Interference. While it does lose Path of Peril as a sideboard option, there are other answers to convoke in the format like Glistening Deluge or Malicious Eclipse.

Golgari Midrange

Commonly Played Rotating Lands: Deathcap Glade, Takenuma, Abandoned Mire, Boseiju, Who Endures

Commonly Played Rotating Non-Lands: Graveyard Trespasser, Path of Peril, Unlicensed Hearse

Dimir Midrange’s cousin, Golgari Midrange similarly pretty much only loses a few lands and Path of Peril from the sideboard. While some versions are still playing Graveyard Trespasser, there are plenty of other 3-drops that can take its place, and graveyard hate should be less important as the Temur Lands Combo deck is likely dying off (more on that below).

Biggest Losers

Temur Lands Combo

Commonly Played Rotating Lands: Brokers Hideout, Cabaretti Courtyard, Maestros Theater, Riveteers Overlook

Commonly Played Rotating Non-Lands: Shigeki, Jukai Visionary, Colossal Skyturtle, Memory Deluge, Titan of Industry

Temur Lands Combo is hit very hard by rotation. The New Capenna sacrifice lands, the core to the deck’s strategy, are gone, and the deck loses Memory Deluge as a way to find its pieces, and Shigeki, Jukai Visionary as a way to recur various pieces later in the game.

However, those main pieces, Nissa, Resurgent Animist, Aftermath Analyst, Worldsoul’s Rage, etc. are not rotating, and there will still be sacrifice lands like Terramorphic Expanse, Evolving Wilds, and Escape Tunnel legal in the format, but those lands don’t auto-sacrifice like the New Capenna sacrifice lands, meaning you are much more reliant on having a Spelunking in play to really combo off. So, maybe the deck is dead, or maybe it just needs to shift. Regardless, I expect a lot of players to drop this deck unless Bloomburrow gives it some new tools.

Domain Ramp

Commonly Played Rotating Lands: Jetmir’s Garden, Spara’s Headquarters, Ziatora’s Proving Ground, Boseiju, Who Endures

Commonly Played Rotating Non-Lands: Topiary Stomper, Depopulate

Domain is in the same boat as Temur Lands, while most of the core cards to the deck’s strategy are not rotating, the tri-lands from New Capenna are rotating, making achieving Domain a bit more tricky. However, there are the Surveil lands from Murders at Karlov Manor, which have two lands types each, making full domain by turn 3 possible, but much less consistent. So Domain Ramp has a chance after rotation but having a less consistent mana base might make it much worse in the format.

Four-Color Legends

Commonly Played Rotating Lands: Boseiju, Who Endures, Otawara, Soaring City, Takenuma, Abandoned Mire, Ziatora’s Proving Ground, Xander’s Lounge, Deathcap Glade

Commonly Played Rotating Non-Lands: Slogurk, the Overslime

My pick for the biggest loser this rotation, Four Color Legends loses not only Slogurk, the Overslime, the key creature to the decks engine, but also all of the channel lands from Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty, making the deck much less resilient to interaction. The Rona, Herald of Invasion plus Inti, Seneschal of the Sun, plus Relic of Legends synergy is not rotating, so perhaps there is still some sort of legends deck that exists post rotation, but it will look a lot different than this current list.

Esper Midrange

Commonly Played Rotating Lands: Eiganjo, Seat of the Empire, Otawara, Soaring City, Takenuma, Abandoned Mire, Deserted Beach, Raffine’s Tower, Shattered Sanctum, Shipwreck Marsh

Commonly Played Rotating Non-Lands: Raffine, Scheming Seer, Dennick, Pious Apprentice, The Wandering Emperor, Wedding Announcement

Finally, Raffine, Scheming Seer is leaving Standard. Esper Midrange has been the most played deck at every Standard Pro Tour/World Championship, except one, since it was printed in Streets of New Capenna. The only one it wasn’t the most played list it was just behind the various Grixis and Rakdos decks that were dominating the format when Fable of the Mirror-Breaker and Invoke Despair were still legal. Without Raffine, I don’t see much of a reason to be Esper instead of just Dimir or Orzhov with a more consistent mana base.

Azorius Control

Commonly Played Rotating Lands: Eiganjo, Seat of the Empire, Otawara, Soaring City, Deserted Beach

Commonly Played Rotating Non-Lands: The Wandering Emperor, March of Otherworldly Light, Memory Deluge, Depopulate, Farewell, Hullbreaker Horror

I actually think this rotation could kill off Azorius Control. The deck is losing one of its main win conditions and removal spells in The Wandering Emperor, its main source of card advantage in Memory Deluge, and March of Otherworld Light as a flexible removal spell. The deck can likely find ways to fill the holes left by Memory Deluge and March, but without The Wandering Emperor the deck may have to lean more on the mill plan with Jace, the Perfected Mind.

Decks that need to figure out some changes

Mono-Red Aggro

Commonly Played Rotating Lands: Sokenzan, Crucible of Defiance

Commonly Played Rotating Non-Lands: Bloodthirsty Adversary, Kumano Faces Kakkazan, Play with Fire, End the Festivities

This deck is losing a few cards but they are easily replaced. Play with Fire can be replaced with Shock, Bloodthirsty Adversary can be replaced with something like Fugitive Codebreaker. From the sideboard, End the Festivities can be replaced with Tectonic Hazard.

The biggest question though is what replaces Kumano Faces Kakkazan? While it might not seem like the card that holds the deck together, Kumano Faces Kakkazan does a lot for the deck. It can grow a two drop out of Cut Down range, and the exile replacement clause makes a card like Mosswood Dreadknight much less effective as a repeatable blocker. So this deck, and Gruul variants, are absolutely surviving rotation, but will have to make some adjustments and try to find a new one drop that does as much work as Kumano does.

Boros Convoke

Commonly Played Rotating Lands: Eiganjo, Seat of the Empire, Sokenzan, Crucible of Defiance

Commonly Played Rotating Non-Lands: Voldaren Epicure

Boros Convoke isn’t losing much, but it is losing Voldaren Epicure, which is most important for being a one drop that generates two permanents, one of which is an artifact that can be used with Gleeful Demolition. Without Voldaren Epicure, the deck is going to have to find a way to play more artifacts if it wants to keep on the Gleeful Demolition plan. It could just up the number of copies of Yotian Frontliner it plays, but I expect the deck will be a bit less explosive post rotation.

Bant Toxic

Commonly Played Rotating Lands: None

Commonly Played Rotating Non-Lands: March of Swirling Mist

Bant Toxic is another deck that gets to keep all of its core cards but is losing a key card in March of Swirling Mist. How important is the March to the decks strategy? Well, pretty important. It saves your board from sweepers, removes blockers to force through lethal, and combos with Venerated Rotpriest to give the opponent several poison counters out of nowhere.

So where does the deck go without March? I’m not sure. The deck could play something like Lost in the Maze as a way to force through blockers and answer opposing spot removal, but it doesn’t save your creatures from sweepers and doesn’t work with rotpriest. Perhaps just more counterspells? Regardless, Bant Toxic is going to have to figure something out.

Biggest Questions going into the new format:

• Do black midrange decks like Dimir and Golgari take over the format?
• How do decks like Mono-Red Aggro, Boros Convoke, and Bant Toxic adapt, and do those adaptations make them better or worse against the black midrange decks?
• Are decks like Temur Lands Combo and Domain Ramp just dead without their New Capenna lands, or are the alternatives good enough to keep the decks going into a post rotation world?
• Is Azorius Control dead or was The Wandering Emperorless important than I’m giving it credit for?

Wrapping Up

Standard Rotation is always an exciting time of the year, and this one looks like it will shake things up with several of the top decks losing key pieces and several other decks having to find replacements. Hopefully the format is ripe for brewing, and some new and interesting decks rise up to find their place on the tier lists. While it is still a month away, I hope this article was helpful as you look over your own collection and plan for what you will be looking to play or craft after rotation. As always, best of luck in all of your games and happy brewing once Bloomburrow spoilers start!