Pioneer Metagame Snapshot: Top Decks for the Week of May 4, 2022

This week we saw the Magic Online and Magic Arena release of Streets of New Capenna (SNC). While it’s always exciting when a new set comes out, the way cards make their way into the Magic Online ecosystem takes a week or so for players to fully access the hottest cards from a new set.

With that in mind, this week’s results have a few SNC cards from those that could grab them prior to the challenges, but the Preliminary results don’t have any SNC cards in them. Next week will be when we see the full effect the new set will have on the Pioneer metagame.

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What Counts for our Data?

Let’s look at the types of events we are using for our winner’s metagame analysis:

• Magic Online Challenge top 16 (2x)
• Magic Online Preliminary 4-0 and 3-1s (3x)

This week we didn’t have any special events such as the Magic Online Championship Series or any large-scale paper events worth including, so it was a data set this week looking at around 50 results in total.

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Top Decks in Pioneer

These decks put up the best qualifying results this weekend and are your frontrunners when considering decks to bring for next week’s various events.

Mono Green Karn

The elephant in the Pioneer room, Mono Green Karn has been at the top of the list of qualifying finishers for three weeks now and put up another 8 results this weekend including a 5th place finish in Saturday’s challenge and a 2nd place finish in Sunday’s challenge.

Along with another 2 top 16s, Mono Green Karn has started to draw questions about whether cards like Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx are healthy for the format. With a new set on the horizon, hopefully we can see some shakeups to the top of the Pioneer metagame, but right now, Mono Green Karn and our next deck are pulling ahead of the rest of the field in terms of consistent results.

Mono Green Ramp

45.1% global win rate

7.25% metagame share

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vs mono blue spirits

62.5% win rate

8 tracked matches

vs Bant Spirits

61.5% win rate

13 tracked matches

vs niv to light

57.1% win rate

7 tracked matches

vs azorius control

56.5% win rate

23 tracked matches

vs izzet control

53.8% win rate

26 tracked matches

vs Mono Red Aggro

52.4% win rate

21 tracked matches

vs rakdos midrange

41.7% win rate

12 tracked matches

vs Fires of Invention

40.0% win rate

5 tracked matches

vs other

38.1% win rate

21 tracked matches

vs izzet phoenix

37.8% win rate

37 tracked matches

vs Winota

32.6% win rate

46 tracked matches

vs lotus field

28.6% win rate

7 tracked matches

Naya Winota

Another deck that has drawn ire from Twitter lately with the introduction of Explorer to Magic Arena, Winota continues to rise to the top of the Magic Online metagame as well. However, the context for why Winota, Joiner of Forces is a top deck is very different between the two formats.

For Pioneer, the overwhelming presence of Winota comes from its matchup against Mono Green Karn. One of the few top decks with a consistently good matchup versus the Green ramp deck, Winota put up 6 qualifying finishes including 2nd place and 7th place finishes Saturday and a 6th place finish Sunday.

Along with an additional 3 top 16s, Winota was the overall top performer in terms of top 8s this weekend and I can’t see that changing unless Mono Green Karn also falls victim to a deck that can take Winota down as well.

Winota

56.7% global win rate

10.35% metagame share

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vs izzet prowess

100.0% win rate

5 tracked matches

vs other

77.8% win rate

27 tracked matches

vs Mono Red Aggro

76.3% win rate

38 tracked matches

vs lotus field

71.4% win rate

14 tracked matches

vs Mono Green Ramp

67.4% win rate

46 tracked matches

vs Bant Spirits

56.3% win rate

16 tracked matches

vs rakdos midrange

53.3% win rate

15 tracked matches

vs azorius control

51.5% win rate

33 tracked matches

vs Greasefang

50.0% win rate

6 tracked matches

vs izzet phoenix

45.1% win rate

51 tracked matches

vs niv to light

40.0% win rate

5 tracked matches

vs izzet control

30.0% win rate

40 tracked matches

vs mono blue spirits

16.7% win rate

6 tracked matches

vs Jund Sacrifice

14.3% win rate

7 tracked matches

Mono Red Aggro

One of the risers this week with 5 qualifying finishes, Mono Red continues to attack the meta through quick starts and having the most answers to turn one mana dorks in the format.

While the Mono Green and Winota matchups are close enough to warren debate often, Mono Red serves to beat up on many of the decks targeting Mono Green, such as fellow stand out deck Mono Blue Spirits.

With Mono Red picking up a win in Sunday’s challenge, it’s safe to say the deck is back from the middling finishes it suffered in the early weeks of Mono Green’s assent to the top of the metagame.

Mono Red Aggro

50.3% global win rate

8.66% metagame share

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vs lotus field

80.0% win rate

5 tracked matches

vs izzet control

72.7% win rate

11 tracked matches

vs other

72.7% win rate

11 tracked matches

vs izzet phoenix

58.3% win rate

24 tracked matches

vs azorius control

56.3% win rate

16 tracked matches

vs Mono Green Ramp

47.6% win rate

21 tracked matches

vs Winota

23.7% win rate

38 tracked matches

vs Rakdos Sacrifice

20.0% win rate

5 tracked matches

Rakdos Midrange

Rakdos Midrange managed 3 qualifying finishes this week with 2 top 16s and a 3rd place finish Sunday. While this isn’t the best result numerically, Rakdos Midrange picks up a lot of percentages against top decks.

While on the weaker side against Mono Green, Rakdos sports good matchups into Winota, Mono Red, and Mono Blue Spirits.

Given the matchup spread looks good at the top tables, if the meta remains similar moving forward, I expect Rakdos will play spoiler for many top decks looking to dethrone Mono Green.

rakdos midrange

48.8% global win rate

6.91% metagame share

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vs lotus field

66.7% win rate

9 tracked matches

vs Mono Green Ramp

58.3% win rate

12 tracked matches

vs azorius control

57.9% win rate

19 tracked matches

vs izzet control

50.0% win rate

14 tracked matches

vs Winota

46.7% win rate

15 tracked matches

vs izzet phoenix

30.0% win rate

10 tracked matches

vs other

30.0% win rate

10 tracked matches

Mono Blue Spirits

Mono Blue Spirits has been steadily rising the past few weeks. With a win in Saturday’s challenge and a 5th place finish in Sunday’s challenge, the format’s premier aggro-tempo deck continues to punish decks casting 4 mana spells.

One of the hardest matchups for Mono Green Karn, expect Mono Blue Spirits to continue to show up at the top tables, but the deck’s weak matchups against Rakdos Midrange and Mono Red should keep the deck from becoming too prevalent in the metagame.

mono blue spirits

43.2% global win rate

2.66% metagame share

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vs Winota

83.3% win rate

6 tracked matches

vs izzet phoenix

40.0% win rate

5 tracked matches

vs Mono Green Ramp

37.5% win rate

8 tracked matches

vs izzet control

20.0% win rate

10 tracked matches

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Top Outliers

These decks either over or underperformed expectations based on their results for the past few weeks. With the continued rise of Mono Green Karn, Winota, and the other decks mentioned above, some of these previous all-stars have fallen off a bit this week.

Izzet Control

With only 3 qualifying finishes, we are far removed from the ten plus results per weekend Izzet Control was putting up a few weeks ago. Having sat at the top of the metagame with Azorius Control for weeks, we are now seeing Izzet Control finally knocked down thanks to the presence of Mono Green Karn.

While Izzet Control can attack the Karn deck through early Thing in the Ice and killing off early ramp creatures, the Mono Green Karn deck is resilient enough to fight through the first Thing in the Ice often and redeploy their threats.

I suspect that until Mono Green Karn falls from the top of the metagame, we won’t see a resurgence of control decks.

izzet control

57.6% global win rate

4.59% metagame share

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vs niv to light

100.0% win rate

5 tracked matches

vs mono blue spirits

80.0% win rate

10 tracked matches

vs other

70.6% win rate

17 tracked matches

vs Winota

70.0% win rate

40 tracked matches

vs lotus field

58.3% win rate

12 tracked matches

vs rakdos midrange

50.0% win rate

14 tracked matches

vs izzet phoenix

48.4% win rate

31 tracked matches

vs Mono Green Ramp

46.2% win rate

26 tracked matches

vs azorius control

42.9% win rate

14 tracked matches

vs Mono Red Aggro

27.3% win rate

11 tracked matches

Izzet Phoenix

With only 2 qualifying finishes this week, we have finally seen the fall of Izzet Pheonix. With difficulty dealing with the top decks in the meta along with not even being the strongest Izzet shell the past few weeks, we are finally seeing that Izzet Phoenix can bleed.

A long-time staple of the top of the metagame, Mono Green Karn’s presence continues to be felt throughout Pioneer as Izzet Phoenix’s good matchups continue to dwindle in the winners metagame. Never count this deck out, but something will need to change otherwise I suspect we won’t be seeing Arclight Phoenix around for a little while.

izzet phoenix

54.8% global win rate

8.56% metagame share

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vs niv to light

83.3% win rate

6 tracked matches

vs rakdos midrange

70.0% win rate

10 tracked matches

vs lotus field

63.6% win rate

11 tracked matches

vs Mono Green Ramp

62.2% win rate

37 tracked matches

vs mono blue spirits

60.0% win rate

5 tracked matches

vs other

58.3% win rate

12 tracked matches

vs Winota

54.9% win rate

51 tracked matches

vs izzet control

51.6% win rate

31 tracked matches

vs azorius control

47.2% win rate

36 tracked matches

vs Mono Red Aggro

41.7% win rate

24 tracked matches

vs Greasefang

20.0% win rate

5 tracked matches

Selesnya Angels

Selesnya Angels only managed a single qualifying finish this week with a top 8 in Saturday’s challenge, but I suspect we will see more of this deck thanks to Giada, Font of Hope.

I wanted to ensure this deck got some attention as I suspect it will be a good metagame choice into all the top winners metagame decks outside of Mono Green Karn. When you see decks like Mono Blue Spirits and Mono Red start to rise, Angels can quickly take them down.

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Meta Predictions

With Streets of New Capenna coming into full effect this upcoming week, we are primed to see if Ob Nixilis, the Adversary, or other new cards will start to take their place in the current metagame.

If we ignore Streets, I suspect we will continue to see Mono Green Karn and the various splash colors such as Selesnya Karn for Portable Hole or Simic Karn for Rapid Hybridization start to show up at the top tables. In addition, Winota will continue to attack the Karn decks and keep the various other aggressive decks in check.

Control should remain in a lull until both decks fall down a bit and I suspect most midrange decks won’t fare much better. Of the various midrange decks, only Rakdos Midrange seems primed to attack either of the top decks in the meta and have a shot against decks like Mono Red and Mono Blue Spirits.

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What I’d Play

Once again, I’d play Mono Green Karn or Green-White Karn. While people continue to prepare and attack this deck, it continues to win. When Izzet Phoenix fit that description, it was best to play Phoenix. When Azorius Control fit that bill, I’d recommend that deck.

Whenever a deck shows continued success at the top of the metagame for several weeks, rest assured that plenty of people have attempted to take it down and seemingly failed. With the latest set, there will be plenty of exciting brews to test, but that is often when the most refined and powerful decks prey on the metagame and Karn is my weapon of choice to do just that.

Mono Green Ramp

45.1% global win rate

7.25% metagame share

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vs mono blue spirits

62.5% win rate

8 tracked matches

vs Bant Spirits

61.5% win rate

13 tracked matches

vs niv to light

57.1% win rate

7 tracked matches

vs azorius control

56.5% win rate

23 tracked matches

vs izzet control

53.8% win rate

26 tracked matches

vs Mono Red Aggro

52.4% win rate

21 tracked matches

vs rakdos midrange

41.7% win rate

12 tracked matches

vs Fires of Invention

40.0% win rate

5 tracked matches

vs other

38.1% win rate

21 tracked matches

vs izzet phoenix

37.8% win rate

37 tracked matches

vs Winota

32.6% win rate

46 tracked matches

vs lotus field

28.6% win rate

7 tracked matches

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Wrapping Up

That concludes this week’s Pioneer metagame breakdown. With a new set looking to shake up the established metagame next week, hopefully we won’t see the continued dominance of Mono Green Karn and Naya Winota at the top tables. It is promising to see Mono Blue Spirits and Mono Red take down challenges this week, but they still paled in comparison to the overall success of the two top decks.

Be sure to check out all the other great content over on MTG Arena Zone including World Champion Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa’s upcoming written content in the Premium section!

Thanks for reading and stay safe out there!

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Decklists in this Article