Table of Contents
Hey everyone! I’ve had a bunch of people request this article so who am I to deny my adoring fans (By fans, I mean my grandma and her friends from bingo. They tell me I’m a huge hit there.). We’re far enough into quick draft that we have abundant data to compare them to premier draft data to hunt up the exploits.
My teammate Dafore (who is currently ranked #1 mythic) has been making jokes about how WOE quick draft has become Boros Simulator. Since that’s how a ton of people are drafting it, one option is to draft an anti aggro deck such as Golgari food to take advantage of the metagame. We’ll be looking into the data of color pairs and individual cards to see if that really is the best path.
This article is strictly discussing the Quick Draft differentials, for general WOE draft tips check out the full Draft Guide.
- Tier List
- Alchemy: Eldraine 🆕
- Draft Guide
- Quick Draft Guide
- Archetypes Guide and Example Decks
- Underperformers and Overperformers
- Combos and Synergies
- Prerelease and Sealed Guide
- Mechanics Guide
- White Review
- Blue Review
- Black Review
- Red Review
- Green Review
- Artifacts, Lands, and Multicolor - Part 1
- Multicolor Part 2
- Enchanting Tales
Quick Draft Color Pair Data
Overall, two color decks are performing better in quick draft at 57.6% than premiere where it is at 55.5%. The main thing that really tells us is that the average user that cares enough to use 17lands has a slightly bigger advantage over quick drafters than they do in premiere drafts. That makes sense since you are more likely to play casual players in the quick draft queues.
Unsurprisingly Boros is the most commonly played archetype with over 6000 games already recorded at a 60.7% win rate. The next highest is going to be Rakdos with 4725 games with a 58.5% win rate. What that tells me is that you are extremely likely to be playing against those archetypes considering that the bottom four archetypes haven’t even cracked 2000 games yet.
That tracks with expectations along with Golgari being the next most played at 4166 games and 58.8% win rate. That means that there are more games recorded of those three archetypes than all of the other two-color archetypes combined.
Now that we know what the metagame consists of, we need to find a way to take advantage of it. In Magic the deck that can go slightly bigger, but not too big typically has an advantage. It’s the paper, rock, scissors of aggro beats control, midrange beats aggo, and control beats midrange. By the numbers you’re going to run into more aggressive decks on average. Make sure your deck can hold up to the onslaught presented by Boros and Rakdos.
Individual Card Differentials
One of the biggest advantages you can get in quick draft is to find out which cards are being inappropriately drafted by the bots. The methodology we will be using is comparing the ALSAs (Average Last Seen At) between premier and quick draft within the same date range to better match up. There is a ton of noise in the beginning of the format data so looking at later premier data helps to remove some of that.
We will be ignoring rares and mythics for this exercise because it doesn’t really matter. The bots rare draft way too high so you’re just not going to see them late. It’s not worth evaluating past knowing that even the bad ones get gobbled up early.
One of the first things that comes up is Imodane's Recruiter which is going to be significantly harder to come by in quick drafts with an ALSA of 1.95 vs 2.51 in Premiere draft. That means less free wins from the “oops all recruiters” piles. Sometimes you’ll still end up with them because the bots will often prioritize rares that no sane person would take over Imodane's Recruiter.
Another large difference is Sharae of Numbing Depths which has been a great pick up late as a splash during premier drafts at 4.66 vs the bots grabbing it up at 2.73. That mostly means you might have to use a real pick on it instead of it being almost a free pickup for your Bant deck.
A very interesting uncommon in the positive direction is Johann, Apprentice Sorcerer which is going all the way at 7.75 in quick draft, a pretty big drop from the 5.60 of premier. Ruby, Daring Tracker is another one with a 6.15 versus 5.12. Most of the other two color uncommons are pretty close in range between the two draft formats.
In general, it looks like removal is harder to come by in quick draft with Torch the Tower going from a 2.91 down to 2.10. Candy Grapple is also being gobbled up early at 2.29 compared to 2.46. This is true for pretty much all the relevant removal including Cut In, Cooped Up, Flick a Coin, and Shatter the Oath. Especially when you consider how hard the bots are rare drafting, that means that removal is just not being passed so you need to make it a priority.
Taking a look at the red common creatures shows a similar pattern to the removal. Edgewall Pack is going at 3.30 versus 4.90 which is a huge jump. Even bigger is Grand Ball Guest which goes at 5.69 in premier getting taken all the way up at 3.32 in Quick draft. It’s pretty clear that they were trying to limit what the red aggressive decks could do, but they are still performing great.
While a lot of the better black cards are going to be more difficult to pick up because they are removal, almost all of the other key commons are going slightly higher in quick draft as well. I could point out that Sugar Rush is going later in quick drafts, but that’s always been one of those cards that you can get if you want it.
One of the major standouts in the white cards is Archon's Glory with a 7.87 ALSA in quick draft while it is going at 6.82 in premier. That gives you a good chance to wheel one of the key Boros cards that can quickly swing a game especially in the mirror. In my opinion, this card is still going too late in premier drafts making this particularly egregious.
Kellan's Lightblades is another one being underdrafted with a 6.58 in quick compared to 5.03 in premiere. Stockpiling Celebrant even has a bit of value at 5.41 versus 5.24 in premier. It seems that as far as white goes, the bots are underdrafting it giving you the opportunity to get into Boros if you focus on red with your early picks.
Hamlet Glutton is a little easier to come by with an ALSA of 4.11 compared to 3.80 in premier draft. I recently described this card as a keystone species of WOE. You are either deathly afraid of it or you really want your opponent to have multiples in their deck. It holds the WOE draft ecosystem together, but I’ll extrapolate on that concept in another article. The other key green cards are coming in really close in ALSA while being picked slightly higher in quick drafts.
Blue is almost always open in quick draft with even the lowest common ALSAs being over five. That also matches up with what is going on in premier draft leaving it as a way to fill in your deck if one of your other colors ends up being cut. Hatching Plans is huge blue card going way too late with a 5.29 ALSA compared to a 4.68 in premier. That is almost criminal, leaving blue as a great support color that you know you can get late.
Overall, I would say that they have improved the bot drafting making it much harder to outright exploit the bots. Even with the better pick orders, there is enough quality cards that you can force an archetype if you want. I would recommend to continue to draft one of the three major archetypes with a little bit of emphasis on making sure your build has a slight lean towards having a better matchup against aggro.
It’s also valuable to know that you can pick up some key white and blue cards later. That lets you focus on your other color early or grab early rares in those colors knowing that you’ll have the opportunity to still fill in your deck with solid cards.
Thanks for reading! Hopefully this helps guide your way through some wild adventures in quick drafts. I’ll be back soon with some more limited content for you. Until then, stay classy people!
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