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Standard Metagame Analysis – Innistrad: Midnight Hunt Week 6

Standard Metagame Analysis – Innistrad: Midnight Hunt Week 6

Tournaments

This weekend there were close to a dozen tournaments each with anywhere from 16 to 50ish players, save for the Red Bull Untapped tournament with 1026 players. In general each of the tournaments had the decks you’d expect to see taking the number one spot – save for one. One of the smallest, the Saturday Magic, saw its top spot taken by Rakdos Aggro. In particular, a vampire focused deck, running cards you might not immediately think of playing in Standard right now.

I feel compelled to point the deck out, if only for the fact that it plays Vampire Spawn. If you’re familiar with 17Lands and drafted much of AFR, this card is deceptive. Although it looks very middling, it had win rates far beyond what people had expected for the card with a 59.00% game-in-hand win rate. Personally, I’m not sold on the deck, but I do like seeing brews fight it out for the top spot.

red bull untapped 2021 international stop ii [eastern time]
23 October, 2021 - standard - 1026 players
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win
rate
vs
mono-green aggro
vs
izzet turns
vs
mono-white aggro
vs
izzet dragons ️
vs
dimir control
vs
temur aggro
vs
jund midrange
mono-green aggro
809 matches
global 52.9% [49.5%-56.3%]
-
57.7%
149 matches
39.6%
164 matches
64.0%
89 matches
50.0%
30 matches
48.1%
106 matches
65.0%
40 matches
mono-green aggro
809 matches
global 52.9% [49.5%-56.3%]
izzet turns
547 matches
global 49.9% [45.7%-54.1%]
42.3%
149 matches
-
51.8%
112 matches
49.1%
53 matches
66.7%
21 matches
44.6%
56 matches
43.8%
16 matches
izzet turns
547 matches
global 49.9% [45.7%-54.1%]
mono-white aggro
588 matches
global 53.1% [49%-57.1%]
60.4%
164 matches
48.2%
112 matches
-
48.5%
66 matches
62.5%
16 matches
46.2%
65 matches
44.0%
25 matches
mono-white aggro
588 matches
global 53.1% [49%-57.1%]
global 47.3% [42%-52.7%]
36.0%
89 matches
50.9%
53 matches
51.5%
66 matches
-
50.0%
10 matches
52.4%
42 matches
50.0%
6 matches
global 47.3% [42%-52.7%]
dimir control
128 matches
global 39.1% [31%-47.7%]
50.0%
30 matches
33.3%
21 matches
37.5%
16 matches
50.0%
10 matches
-
9.1%
11 matches
50.0%
2 matches
dimir control
128 matches
global 39.1% [31%-47.7%]
temur aggro
368 matches
global 54.3% [49.2%-59.4%]
51.9%
106 matches
55.4%
56 matches
53.8%
65 matches
47.6%
42 matches
90.9%
11 matches
-
26.7%
15 matches
temur aggro
368 matches
global 54.3% [49.2%-59.4%]
jund midrange
132 matches
global 53.0% [44.6%-61.3%]
35.0%
40 matches
56.3%
16 matches
56.0%
25 matches
50.0%
6 matches
50.0%
2 matches
73.3%
15 matches
-
jund midrange
132 matches
global 53.0% [44.6%-61.3%]
vs
mono-green aggro
vs
izzet turns
vs
mono-white aggro
vs
izzet dragons ️
vs
dimir control
vs
temur aggro
vs
jund midrange
big magic sunday weekly challenge no.08
24 October, 2021 - standard - 53 players
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win
rate
vs
mono-green aggro
vs
izzet turns
vs
mono-white aggro
vs
izzet dragons ️
vs
dimir control
vs
jund midrange
vs
grixis turns
vs
jeskai epiphany
global 60.0% [45.5%-73%]
-
62.5%
8 matches
62.5%
8 matches
33.3%
6 matches
0.0%
1 matches
60.0%
5 matches
50.0%
6 matches
100.0%
3 matches
global 60.0% [45.5%-73%]
izzet turns
26 matches
global 50.0% [32.1%-67.9%]
37.5%
8 matches
-
50.0%
2 matches
0.0%
2 matches
100.0%
1 matches
66.7%
3 matches
-
-
izzet turns
26 matches
global 50.0% [32.1%-67.9%]
global 39.1% [22.2%-59.2%]
37.5%
8 matches
50.0%
2 matches
-
100.0%
1 matches
25.0%
4 matches
50.0%
2 matches
0.0%
1 matches
0.0%
2 matches
global 39.1% [22.2%-59.2%]
global 53.8% [35.5%-71.2%]
66.7%
6 matches
100.0%
2 matches
0.0%
1 matches
-
60.0%
5 matches
0.0%
1 matches
0.0%
1 matches
50.0%
2 matches
global 53.8% [35.5%-71.2%]
dimir control
20 matches
global 40.0% [21.9%-61.3%]
100.0%
1 matches
0.0%
1 matches
75.0%
4 matches
40.0%
5 matches
-
0.0%
2 matches
0.0%
2 matches
0.0%
1 matches
dimir control
20 matches
global 40.0% [21.9%-61.3%]
jund midrange
15 matches
global 53.3% [30.1%-75.2%]
40.0%
5 matches
33.3%
3 matches
50.0%
2 matches
100.0%
1 matches
100.0%
2 matches
-
-
-
jund midrange
15 matches
global 53.3% [30.1%-75.2%]
grixis turns
12 matches
global 58.3% [32%-80.7%]
50.0%
6 matches
-
100.0%
1 matches
100.0%
1 matches
100.0%
2 matches
-
-
0.0%
1 matches
grixis turns
12 matches
global 58.3% [32%-80.7%]
global 60.0% [31.3%-83.2%]
0.0%
3 matches
-
100.0%
2 matches
50.0%
2 matches
100.0%
1 matches
-
100.0%
1 matches
-
global 60.0% [31.3%-83.2%]
vs
mono-green aggro
vs
izzet turns
vs
mono-white aggro
vs
izzet dragons ️
vs
dimir control
vs
jund midrange
vs
grixis turns
vs
jeskai epiphany

Biggest Decks

Again focusing on the Red Bull Tournament, the big decks I mentioned last week are still around, with the (kind of) exception of Mono-Black.

Here’s the changes in metagame share from the decks I mentioned last week:

DeckMetagame Share Last WeekMetagame Share This Week
Izzet Turns9.11%10.36%
Grixis Turns3.09%2.35%
Izzet Dragons20.33%13.20%
Mono-Green Aggro17.64%22.29%
Mono-White Aggro12.85%14.27%
Mono-Black Aggro3.17%0.39%
izzet dragons ️
47.1% global win rate
7.39% metagame share
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vs rakdos control
80.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs dimir tempo
77.8% win rate
9 tracked matches
vs jeskai epiphany
75.0% win rate
8 tracked matches
vs golgari control
75.0% win rate
12 tracked matches
vs orzhov tempo
73.3% win rate
15 tracked matches
vs grixis dragons
71.4% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs orzhov midrange
71.1% win rate
45 tracked matches
vs boros aggro
71.1% win rate
38 tracked matches
vs orzhov control
70.0% win rate
10 tracked matches
vs azorius spirits
66.7% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs dimir zombies
66.7% win rate
9 tracked matches
vs izzet delver
66.7% win rate
15 tracked matches
vs selesnya aggro
62.5% win rate
16 tracked matches
vs mono-black aggro
62.0% win rate
50 tracked matches
vs simic aggro
61.1% win rate
18 tracked matches
vs naya ramp
60.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs temur ramp
60.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs boros burn
60.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs simic ramp
60.0% win rate
20 tracked matches
vs selesnya humans
58.3% win rate
12 tracked matches
vs bant ramp
57.7% win rate
26 tracked matches
vs mono-black control
57.4% win rate
61 tracked matches
vs sultai midrange
56.7% win rate
60 tracked matches
vs azorius tempo
55.9% win rate
34 tracked matches
vs rakdos vampires
54.2% win rate
24 tracked matches
vs selesnya ramp
52.5% win rate
40 tracked matches
vs esper control
51.5% win rate
33 tracked matches
vs naya midrange
50.0% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs rakdos treasures
50.0% win rate
8 tracked matches
vs grixis turns
50.0% win rate
108 tracked matches
vs mono blue tempo
50.0% win rate
12 tracked matches
vs temur aggro
49.0% win rate
208 tracked matches
vs mono-white aggro
48.6% win rate
591 tracked matches
vs dimir control
48.5% win rate
97 tracked matches
vs jeskai control
47.6% win rate
21 tracked matches
vs izzet control
47.4% win rate
19 tracked matches
vs gruul werewolves
47.1% win rate
70 tracked matches
vs rakdos midrange
46.2% win rate
26 tracked matches
vs orzhov aggro
45.5% win rate
11 tracked matches
vs azorius control
44.4% win rate
81 tracked matches
vs bant aggro
42.9% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs izzet turns
42.7% win rate
641 tracked matches
vs mono red aggro
40.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs golgari midrange
40.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs gruul aggro
39.1% win rate
23 tracked matches
vs grixis control
38.5% win rate
26 tracked matches
vs mono-green aggro
38.4% win rate
778 tracked matches
vs orzhov clerics
35.3% win rate
17 tracked matches
vs jund midrange
33.6% win rate
110 tracked matches
vs jund planeswalkers
33.3% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs esper epiphany
33.3% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs mono-red aggro
14.3% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs jund werewolves
14.3% win rate
7 tracked matches

I can’t say much about the shares of the decks surprises me, other than how quickly the share of Izzet Dragons dropped. There could be two reasons why this is the case:

  1. Players are more prepared against the likes of the 4 toughness creatures (Smoldering Egg and Goldspan Dragon)
  2. Aggro players that originally felt Izzet was the best set of colours to be in changed their mind, and moved back over to Mono-White and Mono-Green Aggro.

If you’re not dead-set on playing the Izzet colours, I think that’s the right move given that the deck is only favoured against Mono-White Aggro. In addition to the decks above, two other decks seem to be gaining some traction from last week. One is Dimir Control, and the other is Temur Aggro.

dimir control
43.8% global win rate
3.68% metagame share
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vs rakdos vampires
83.3% win rate
18 tracked matches
vs simic ramp
66.7% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs rakdos midrange
63.6% win rate
11 tracked matches
vs naya midrange
62.5% win rate
8 tracked matches
vs orzhov tempo
60.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs jeskai epiphany
60.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs selesnya humans
58.8% win rate
17 tracked matches
vs orzhov clerics
58.3% win rate
12 tracked matches
vs bant ramp
57.1% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs izzet delver
55.6% win rate
9 tracked matches
vs izzet dragons ️
51.5% win rate
97 tracked matches
vs azorius tempo
50.0% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs esper control
50.0% win rate
14 tracked matches
vs gruul aggro
50.0% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs azorius control
46.4% win rate
28 tracked matches
vs mono-black control
45.8% win rate
24 tracked matches
vs orzhov midrange
45.7% win rate
35 tracked matches
vs mono-black aggro
44.4% win rate
9 tracked matches
vs sultai midrange
44.0% win rate
25 tracked matches
vs grixis control
42.9% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs mono blue tempo
42.9% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs mono-white aggro
42.2% win rate
249 tracked matches
vs selesnya ramp
42.1% win rate
19 tracked matches
vs orzhov control
41.7% win rate
12 tracked matches
vs mono-green aggro
41.5% win rate
289 tracked matches
vs jund midrange
41.3% win rate
46 tracked matches
vs izzet turns
40.7% win rate
312 tracked matches
vs mono red aggro
40.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs mardu midrange
40.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs jeskai control
37.5% win rate
8 tracked matches
vs izzet control
36.4% win rate
11 tracked matches
vs boros aggro
30.8% win rate
13 tracked matches
vs temur aggro
30.4% win rate
46 tracked matches
vs gruul werewolves
28.6% win rate
28 tracked matches
vs grixis turns
28.6% win rate
42 tracked matches
vs orzhov aggro
20.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs selesnya aggro
20.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs golgari control
20.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs naya aggro
16.7% win rate
6 tracked matches

Dimir Control is a deck that’s looking to try and stave off aggro with its removal, and fight the Turns decks with its counterspells and card advantage from Planeswalkers. Despite having a better manabase than Grixis Turns, it seems to be doing worse. Dimir Control sports the lowest win rate out of the most popular decks at 39.1%. I can’t say I’m surprised to see this, considering that it’s trying to fight the decks that go over and the decks that go under simultaneously. Its best win rates are around 50%, and its worst are bad – a measly 9.1%. While I’m sure the deck isn’t great, the sample size may be to blame for the extremeness of the numbers.

temur aggro
52.9% global win rate
3.22% metagame share
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vs esper tempo
85.7% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs mono-black aggro
84.6% win rate
13 tracked matches
vs azorius control
83.3% win rate
30 tracked matches
vs bant ramp
81.3% win rate
16 tracked matches
vs grixis control
77.8% win rate
9 tracked matches
vs esper control
76.5% win rate
17 tracked matches
vs izzet delver
75.0% win rate
8 tracked matches
vs rakdos midrange
71.4% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs dimir control
69.6% win rate
46 tracked matches
vs bant aggro
66.7% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs gruul aggro
60.0% win rate
10 tracked matches
vs jeskai control
60.0% win rate
10 tracked matches
vs simic aggro
60.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs mardu fury
57.1% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs izzet turns
56.8% win rate
271 tracked matches
vs gruul werewolves
56.3% win rate
16 tracked matches
vs boros aggro
55.6% win rate
9 tracked matches
vs selesnya humans
55.6% win rate
9 tracked matches
vs sultai midrange
53.8% win rate
26 tracked matches
vs grixis turns
53.1% win rate
49 tracked matches
vs izzet dragons ️
51.0% win rate
208 tracked matches
vs orzhov midrange
50.0% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs grixis dragons
50.0% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs simic ramp
50.0% win rate
8 tracked matches
vs mono-white aggro
47.7% win rate
260 tracked matches
vs mono-green aggro
47.5% win rate
385 tracked matches
vs mono-black control
44.4% win rate
18 tracked matches
vs selesnya ramp
40.0% win rate
15 tracked matches
vs orzhov clerics
33.3% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs jund midrange
32.0% win rate
50 tracked matches
vs azorius tempo
25.0% win rate
12 tracked matches
vs naya midrange
20.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs orzhov control
16.7% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs selesnya aggro
0.0% win rate
6 tracked matches

Temur Aggro on the other hand, is a deck I’d consider playing. Opposite of Dimir Control, it has the highest winrate of the tourney at 54.3%. It was present in the metagame share last week, and this week makes up just over 8% of the tournament. While the deck is called Temur Aggro, it’s more of a “Gruul Aggro deck with a ramp/treasure subtheme splashing Negate”, which doesn’t quite roll off the tongue as well.

However, as odd as the description might sound, pairing Jaspera Sentinel, Magda, Brazen Outlaw and Prosperous Innkeeper make for some explosive starts. That’s only compounded when Goldspan Dragon comes down and makes treasures tap for double. Of course, since the deck has green mana, it also has Ranger Class, Esika’s Chariot and Wrenn and Seven.


Surprise Winners

mono-black aggro
43.7% global win rate
0.64% metagame share
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vs azorius tempo
71.4% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs gruul werewolves
60.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs mono-white aggro
57.1% win rate
49 tracked matches
vs dimir control
55.6% win rate
9 tracked matches
vs mono-black control
50.0% win rate
8 tracked matches
vs mono-green aggro
44.9% win rate
49 tracked matches
vs jund midrange
42.9% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs azorius control
40.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs esper control
40.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs izzet dragons ️
38.0% win rate
50 tracked matches
vs izzet turns
32.4% win rate
37 tracked matches
vs grixis turns
27.3% win rate
11 tracked matches
vs temur aggro
15.4% win rate
13 tracked matches

While I wasn’t very high on Mono-Black last week, I do want to note that it made top-8 this week while making up less than half a percent of the metagame. However, I do think the version which won this week is more focused than last week’s decks. While still having The Meathook Massacre and Deadly Dispute for reach and card advantage, the winning deck plays Jadar, Ghoulcaller of Nephalia and Skyclave Shade which gives the deck a much more aggressive edge. With that said, the deck also has Infernal Grasp and Eaten Alive which means it has the tools to fight against the other aggro decks.

jund midrange
54.8% global win rate
3.14% metagame share
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vs selesnya aggro
83.3% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs esper control
76.7% win rate
30 tracked matches
vs rakdos midrange
75.0% win rate
8 tracked matches
vs azorius control
73.3% win rate
30 tracked matches
vs rakdos vampires
70.0% win rate
20 tracked matches
vs grixis control
68.8% win rate
16 tracked matches
vs temur aggro
68.0% win rate
50 tracked matches
vs azorius tempo
66.7% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs jeskai control
66.7% win rate
9 tracked matches
vs izzet dragons ️
66.4% win rate
110 tracked matches
vs naya aggro
60.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs sultai control
60.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs dimir control
58.7% win rate
46 tracked matches
vs izzet turns
57.7% win rate
324 tracked matches
vs orzhov aggro
57.1% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs gruul aggro
57.1% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs izzet control
57.1% win rate
21 tracked matches
vs mono-black aggro
57.1% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs esper tempo
57.1% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs mono-red aggro
55.6% win rate
9 tracked matches
vs mono-white aggro
52.8% win rate
305 tracked matches
vs boros aggro
50.0% win rate
16 tracked matches
vs orzhov clerics
50.0% win rate
12 tracked matches
vs golgari control
50.0% win rate
8 tracked matches
vs grixis turns
48.6% win rate
37 tracked matches
vs mono-green aggro
48.0% win rate
279 tracked matches
vs gruul werewolves
41.7% win rate
12 tracked matches
vs selesnya humans
41.7% win rate
12 tracked matches
vs naya ramp
40.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs orzhov midrange
38.3% win rate
47 tracked matches
vs selesnya ramp
35.7% win rate
14 tracked matches
vs orzhov control
35.3% win rate
17 tracked matches
vs sultai midrange
35.0% win rate
20 tracked matches
vs mono-black control
28.0% win rate
25 tracked matches
vs bant ramp
25.0% win rate
8 tracked matches

The deck I’m happiest to see in the top-8 is Jund Midrange, which honestly might be more of an “I told you so” thing than anything else. If you remember my article from last week, Jund Midrange won in one of the smaller tournaments, and I did mention that I felt we’d see more of it. While not anywhere near being the most popular deck, it has a metagame share just shy of 3% in the Red Bull tournament – more than triple of last week’s tournament share.

This deck is very similar to the Temur Aggro deck (in that it runs Sentinel, Magda, Innkeeper, and Goldspan), but drops the counterspells in blue for graveyard and hand hate in black. With black, the deck also often opts to play Immersturm Predator, and the winning version plays Graveyard Trespasser. Trespasser feels like a good meta pick, since it pressures the Turns decks while picking away at flashback cards, and in aggro matchups is solidly sized and has the ability to drain the opponent.


Meta Predictions

Continuing from last week, I expect to see the share of aggro decks increase, though redistributed. In particular, I expect to see an uptick in Mono-Black Aggro and Temur Aggro decks with the Mono-Black build that landed in the top-8 seeing the biggest jump. With the increase of aggro, I think Izzet Dragons is likely to get further pushed out, especially after its middling performance this week.  Alongside that, I suspect that between the increase in Aggro and the existence of Turns decks, we’ll see fewer of the already small number of control decks.

One other thing I suspect is that Jund Midrange will pick up a few points in the next week. Right now the top 5 decks (Mono-Green, Mono-White, Izzet Dragons, Izzet Turns, and Temur Aggro) make up roughly 70% of decks played in the tournament, which means that the other 30% is distributed amongst a swath of other decks. Since aggro is more present and a midrange deck made top 8, I suspect that the deck diversity in the remaining 30% is likely to drop as the “Meta-Breakers” start to be found.

In short, I think this coming week will see less overall variety in decks as people start to move towards more proven decks. Though, while deck diversity might go down, the metagame shares of the top decks are likely to have smaller gaps between them, meaning the deck to beat becomes less clear. While I think that signals a healthier metagame, it does make choosing a deck to bring to a tournament harder.


What I’d Play

Before I continue, I think if I were to bring a deck to the tournament next week, I’d bring the Mono-White deck I suggested in last week’s article as a safe pick. However, I don’t want to simply repeat the same deck (since that would be terribly boring), so if you’re willing to take more of a risk in deck choice, here’s what I’d recommend instead.

In a Tournament

I think Mono-Black might have some legs with the make-up of its deck, it can do a good job playing both an aggro game as well as a midrange game. Against Turns and control, you play more into your aggro, while against Aggro and Midrange you play more to your midrange plan. I also believe black has some of the best sideboard options in Blood on the Snow and Go Blank.

Mono-Black Aggro (Tourney)
by Arty
Buy on TCGplayer $339.29
Historic
best of 3
6 mythic
20 rare
8 uncommon
26 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Planeswalkers (3)
Instants (5)
3
Deadly Dispute
$8.37
2
Infernal Grasp
$2.58
Sorceries (4)
4
Eaten Alive
$1.00
Enchantments (3)
Lands (24)
15
Snow-Covered Swamp
$14.85
2
Field of Ruin
$0.78
4
Faceless Haven
$3.16
60 Cards
$348.84
Sideboard
1
Sedgemoor Witch
$2.79
2
Flunk
$0.50
2
Duress
$0.50
3
Go Blank
$5.97
1
Pest Summoning
$0.25
15 Cards
$91.79

On Ladder

As I mentioned last week, I expect to see more aggressive decks on the ladder, so I want to lean a little more into a lower curve, and the midrange plan here. 

Mono-Black Aggro (Ladder)
by Arty
Buy on TCGplayer $344.04
Historic
best of 3
6 mythic
21 rare
9 uncommon
24 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Planeswalkers (3)
Instants (5)
2
Deadly Dispute
$5.58
3
Infernal Grasp
$3.87
Sorceries (3)
3
Eaten Alive
$0.75
Enchantments (3)
Lands (24)
15
Snow-Covered Swamp
$14.85
2
Field of Ruin
$0.78
4
Faceless Haven
$3.16
60 Cards
$349.58
Sideboard
2
Flunk
$0.50
2
Duress
$0.50
3
Go Blank
$5.97
1
Pest Summoning
$0.25
15 Cards
$93.49

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Arty
Arty

Arty is MTG Arena Zone and MTGMeta.io's data analyst. He will help you find the best decks in the format!

Articles: 10

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