Standard Metagame Analysis – Innistrad: Midnight Hunt Week 6 • MTG Arena Zone

Table of Contents

Tournaments
Biggest Decks
Surprise Winners
Meta Predictions
What I’d Play
- In a Tournament
- On Ladder

Tournaments

This weekend there were close to a dozen tournaments each with anywhere from 16 to 50ish players, save for the Red Bull Untapped tournament with 1026 players. In general each of the tournaments had the decks you’d expect to see taking the number one spot – save for one. One of the smallest, the Saturday Magic, saw its top spot taken by Rakdos Aggro. In particular, a vampire focused deck, running cards you might not immediately think of playing in Standard right now.

I feel compelled to point the deck out, if only for the fact that it plays Vampire Spawn. If you’re familiar with 17Lands and drafted much of AFR, this card is deceptive. Although it looks very middling, it had win rates far beyond what people had expected for the card with a 59.00% game-in-hand win rate. Personally, I’m not sold on the deck, but I do like seeing brews fight it out for the top spot.

red bull untapped 2021 international stop ii [eastern time]

23 October, 2021 - standard - 1026 players

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vsmono-green aggro
vsizzet turns
vsmono-white aggro
vsizzet dragons ️
vsdimir control
vstemur aggro
vsjund midrange


mono-green aggro
809 matches

global
52.9%
[49.5%-56.3%]
-
57.7%
149 matches
39.6%
164 matches
64.0%
89 matches
50.0%
30 matches
48.1%
106 matches
65.0%
40 matches


mono-green aggro
809 matches

global
52.9%
[49.5%-56.3%]


izzet turns
547 matches

global
49.9%
[45.7%-54.1%]
42.3%
149 matches
-
51.8%
112 matches
49.1%
53 matches
66.7%
21 matches
44.6%
56 matches
43.8%
16 matches


izzet turns
547 matches

global
49.9%
[45.7%-54.1%]


mono-white aggro
588 matches

global
53.1%
[49%-57.1%]
60.4%
164 matches
48.2%
112 matches
-
48.5%
66 matches
62.5%
16 matches
46.2%
65 matches
44.0%
25 matches


mono-white aggro
588 matches

global
53.1%
[49%-57.1%]


izzet dragons ️
332 matches

global
47.3%
[42%-52.7%]
36.0%
89 matches
50.9%
53 matches
51.5%
66 matches
-
50.0%
10 matches
52.4%
42 matches
50.0%
6 matches


izzet dragons ️
332 matches

global
47.3%
[42%-52.7%]


dimir control
128 matches

global
39.1%
[31%-47.7%]
50.0%
30 matches
33.3%
21 matches
37.5%
16 matches
50.0%
10 matches
-
9.1%
11 matches
50.0%
2 matches


dimir control
128 matches

global
39.1%
[31%-47.7%]


temur aggro
368 matches

global
54.3%
[49.2%-59.4%]
51.9%
106 matches
55.4%
56 matches
53.8%
65 matches
47.6%
42 matches
90.9%
11 matches
-
26.7%
15 matches


temur aggro
368 matches

global
54.3%
[49.2%-59.4%]


jund midrange
132 matches

global
53.0%
[44.6%-61.3%]
35.0%
40 matches
56.3%
16 matches
56.0%
25 matches
50.0%
6 matches
50.0%
2 matches
73.3%
15 matches
-


jund midrange
132 matches

global
53.0%
[44.6%-61.3%]
vsmono-green aggro
vsizzet turns
vsmono-white aggro
vsizzet dragons ️
vsdimir control
vstemur aggro
vsjund midrange

big magic sunday weekly challenge　no.08

24 October, 2021 - standard - 53 players

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Powered by win
 rate
vsmono-green aggro
vsizzet turns
vsmono-white aggro
vsizzet dragons ️
vsdimir control
vsjund midrange
vsgrixis turns
vsjeskai epiphany


mono-green aggro
45 matches

global
60.0%
[45.5%-73%]
-
62.5%
8 matches
62.5%
8 matches
33.3%
6 matches
0.0%
1 matches
60.0%
5 matches
50.0%
6 matches
100.0%
3 matches


mono-green aggro
45 matches

global
60.0%
[45.5%-73%]


izzet turns
26 matches

global
50.0%
[32.1%-67.9%]
37.5%
8 matches
-
50.0%
2 matches
0.0%
2 matches
100.0%
1 matches
66.7%
3 matches
-
-


izzet turns
26 matches

global
50.0%
[32.1%-67.9%]


mono-white aggro
23 matches

global
39.1%
[22.2%-59.2%]
37.5%
8 matches
50.0%
2 matches
-
100.0%
1 matches
25.0%
4 matches
50.0%
2 matches
0.0%
1 matches
0.0%
2 matches


mono-white aggro
23 matches

global
39.1%
[22.2%-59.2%]


izzet dragons ️
26 matches

global
53.8%
[35.5%-71.2%]
66.7%
6 matches
100.0%
2 matches
0.0%
1 matches
-
60.0%
5 matches
0.0%
1 matches
0.0%
1 matches
50.0%
2 matches


izzet dragons ️
26 matches

global
53.8%
[35.5%-71.2%]


dimir control
20 matches

global
40.0%
[21.9%-61.3%]
100.0%
1 matches
0.0%
1 matches
75.0%
4 matches
40.0%
5 matches
-
0.0%
2 matches
0.0%
2 matches
0.0%
1 matches


dimir control
20 matches

global
40.0%
[21.9%-61.3%]


jund midrange
15 matches

global
53.3%
[30.1%-75.2%]
40.0%
5 matches
33.3%
3 matches
50.0%
2 matches
100.0%
1 matches
100.0%
2 matches
-
-
-


jund midrange
15 matches

global
53.3%
[30.1%-75.2%]


grixis turns
12 matches

global
58.3%
[32%-80.7%]
50.0%
6 matches
-
100.0%
1 matches
100.0%
1 matches
100.0%
2 matches
-
-
0.0%
1 matches


grixis turns
12 matches

global
58.3%
[32%-80.7%]


jeskai epiphany
10 matches

global
60.0%
[31.3%-83.2%]
0.0%
3 matches
-
100.0%
2 matches
50.0%
2 matches
100.0%
1 matches
-
100.0%
1 matches
-


jeskai epiphany
10 matches

global
60.0%
[31.3%-83.2%]
vsmono-green aggro
vsizzet turns
vsmono-white aggro
vsizzet dragons ️
vsdimir control
vsjund midrange
vsgrixis turns
vsjeskai epiphany

Biggest Decks

Again focusing on the Red Bull Tournament, the big decks I mentioned last week are still around, with the (kind of) exception of Mono-Black.

Standard Metagame Analysis – Innistrad: Midnight Hunt Week 5

Here’s the changes in metagame share from the decks I mentioned last week:

Deck	Metagame Share Last Week	Metagame Share This Week
Izzet Turns	9.11%	10.36%
Grixis Turns	3.09%	2.35%
Izzet Dragons	20.33%	13.20%
Mono-Green Aggro	17.64%	22.29%
Mono-White Aggro	12.85%	14.27%
Mono-Black Aggro	3.17%	0.39%

izzet dragons ️

47.1% global win rate

vs mono-black control

vs jund planeswalkers

I can’t say much about the shares of the decks surprises me, other than how quickly the share of Izzet Dragons dropped. There could be two reasons why this is the case:

Players are more prepared against the likes of the 4 toughness creatures (Smoldering Egg and Goldspan Dragon)
Aggro players that originally felt Izzet was the best set of colours to be in changed their mind, and moved back over to Mono-White and Mono-Green Aggro.

If you’re not dead-set on playing the Izzet colours, I think that’s the right move given that the deck is only favoured against Mono-White Aggro. In addition to the decks above, two other decks seem to be gaining some traction from last week. One is Dimir Control, and the other is Temur Aggro.

dimir control

43.8% global win rate

vs mono-black control

Dimir Control is a deck that’s looking to try and stave off aggro with its removal, and fight the Turns decks with its counterspells and card advantage from Planeswalkers. Despite having a better manabase than Grixis Turns, it seems to be doing worse. Dimir Control sports the lowest win rate out of the most popular decks at 39.1%. I can’t say I’m surprised to see this, considering that it’s trying to fight the decks that go over and the decks that go under simultaneously. Its best win rates are around 50%, and its worst are bad – a measly 9.1%. While I’m sure the deck isn’t great, the sample size may be to blame for the extremeness of the numbers.

temur aggro

52.9% global win rate

vs mono-black control

Temur Aggro on the other hand, is a deck I’d consider playing. Opposite of Dimir Control, it has the highest winrate of the tourney at 54.3%. It was present in the metagame share last week, and this week makes up just over 8% of the tournament. While the deck is called Temur Aggro, it’s more of a “Gruul Aggro deck with a ramp/treasure subtheme splashing Negate”, which doesn’t quite roll off the tongue as well.

However, as odd as the description might sound, pairing Jaspera Sentinel, Magda, Brazen Outlaw and Prosperous Innkeeper make for some explosive starts. That’s only compounded when Goldspan Dragon comes down and makes treasures tap for double. Of course, since the deck has green mana, it also has Ranger Class, Esika’s Chariot and Wrenn and Seven.

Surprise Winners

mono-black aggro

43.7% global win rate

vs mono-black control

While I wasn’t very high on Mono-Black last week, I do want to note that it made top-8 this week while making up less than half a percent of the metagame. However, I do think the version which won this week is more focused than last week’s decks. While still having The Meathook Massacre and Deadly Dispute for reach and card advantage, the winning deck plays Jadar, Ghoulcaller of Nephalia and Skyclave Shade which gives the deck a much more aggressive edge. With that said, the deck also has Infernal Grasp and Eaten Alive which means it has the tools to fight against the other aggro decks.

jund midrange

54.8% global win rate

vs mono-black control

The deck I’m happiest to see in the top-8 is Jund Midrange, which honestly might be more of an “I told you so” thing than anything else. If you remember my article from last week, Jund Midrange won in one of the smaller tournaments, and I did mention that I felt we’d see more of it. While not anywhere near being the most popular deck, it has a metagame share just shy of 3% in the Red Bull tournament – more than triple of last week’s tournament share.

This deck is very similar to the Temur Aggro deck (in that it runs Sentinel, Magda, Innkeeper, and Goldspan), but drops the counterspells in blue for graveyard and hand hate in black. With black, the deck also often opts to play Immersturm Predator, and the winning version plays Graveyard Trespasser. Trespasser feels like a good meta pick, since it pressures the Turns decks while picking away at flashback cards, and in aggro matchups is solidly sized and has the ability to drain the opponent.

Meta Predictions

Continuing from last week, I expect to see the share of aggro decks increase, though redistributed. In particular, I expect to see an uptick in Mono-Black Aggro and Temur Aggro decks with the Mono-Black build that landed in the top-8 seeing the biggest jump. With the increase of aggro, I think Izzet Dragons is likely to get further pushed out, especially after its middling performance this week. Alongside that, I suspect that between the increase in Aggro and the existence of Turns decks, we’ll see fewer of the already small number of control decks.

One other thing I suspect is that Jund Midrange will pick up a few points in the next week. Right now the top 5 decks (Mono-Green, Mono-White, Izzet Dragons, Izzet Turns, and Temur Aggro) make up roughly 70% of decks played in the tournament, which means that the other 30% is distributed amongst a swath of other decks. Since aggro is more present and a midrange deck made top 8, I suspect that the deck diversity in the remaining 30% is likely to drop as the “Meta-Breakers” start to be found.

In short, I think this coming week will see less overall variety in decks as people start to move towards more proven decks. Though, while deck diversity might go down, the metagame shares of the top decks are likely to have smaller gaps between them, meaning the deck to beat becomes less clear. While I think that signals a healthier metagame, it does make choosing a deck to bring to a tournament harder.

What I’d Play

Before I continue, I think if I were to bring a deck to the tournament next week, I’d bring the Mono-White deck I suggested in last week’s article as a safe pick. However, I don’t want to simply repeat the same deck (since that would be terribly boring), so if you’re willing to take more of a risk in deck choice, here’s what I’d recommend instead.

In a Tournament

I think Mono-Black might have some legs with the make-up of its deck, it can do a good job playing both an aggro game as well as a midrange game. Against Turns and control, you play more into your aggro, while against Aggro and Midrange you play more to your midrange plan. I also believe black has some of the best sideboard options in Blood on the Snow and Go Blank.

Mono-Black Aggro (Tourney)

by Arty

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mythic
rare
uncommon
common

Planeswalkers (3)

Lolth, Spider Queen

$20.97

Creatures (21)

$1.40

$0.98

$1.96

$1.96

Jadar, Ghoulcaller of Nephalia

$8.98

Sedgemoor Witch

$10.47

Graveyard Trespasser

$1.98

Instants (5)

Deadly Dispute

$4.47

Infernal Grasp

$4.58

Sorceries (4)

Eaten Alive

$1.40

Enchantments (3)

The Meathook Massacre

$119.97

Lands (24)

Snow-Covered Swamp

$14.85

Field of Ruin

$0.98

Hive of the Eye Tyrant

$11.97

Faceless Haven

$2.36

60 Cards
$209.28

Sideboard

Sedgemoor Witch

$3.49

Flunk

$0.70

Duress

$0.70

Environmental Sciences

$0.35

$1.77

$0.35

$0.35

$0.98

$0.99

The Meathook Massacre

$39.99

15 Cards
$49.67

On Ladder

As I mentioned last week, I expect to see more aggressive decks on the ladder, so I want to lean a little more into a lower curve, and the midrange plan here.

Mono-Black Aggro (Ladder)

by Arty

Buy on TCGplayer $209.29

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