Standard Metagame Analysis - Innistrad: Midnight Hunt Week 5 • MTG Arena Zone

Table of Contents

Tournaments
Biggest Deck(s)
- Epiphany Decks
- Mono-Colour Aggro
Meta Predictions
What I’d Play
- In a Tournament
- On Ladder

Welcome to the first of our metagame analysis series of articles, featuring data collected by mtgmeta.io! In this column, we will start by rounding up results from the weekend’s events, analyze the state of the current metagame, and recommend options to attack it going forward.

Tournaments

This weekend there weren’t many tournaments, and the ones that did happen were mostly small. The biggest tournament by far was the first of this year’s free-to-enter ”Red Bull Untapped” tournament series with 1235 players. This tournament had a surprising variety of decks, but the majority of the decks were still from the usual suspects – Izzet Turns, Izzet Dragons, Mono-White Aggro and Mono-Green Aggro.

red bull untapped 2021 international stop i

16 October, 2021 - standard - 1235 players

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Powered by win
 rate
vsmono-green aggro
vsizzet turns
vsmono-white aggro
vsizzet dragons ️
vstemur aggro
vsgrixis turns
vsmono-black aggro


mono-green aggro
969 matches

global
54.7%
[51.5%-57.8%]
-
64.5%
141 matches
36.5%
178 matches
61.4%
220 matches
52.9%
102 matches
60.6%
33 matches
58.8%
34 matches


mono-green aggro
969 matches

global
54.7%
[51.5%-57.8%]


izzet turns
643 matches

global
48.4%
[44.5%-52.2%]
35.5%
141 matches
-
50.5%
95 matches
57.2%
152 matches
26.9%
52 matches
70.0%
20 matches
70.6%
17 matches


izzet turns
643 matches

global
48.4%
[44.5%-52.2%]


mono-white aggro
769 matches

global
55.7%
[52.1%-59.1%]
63.5%
178 matches
49.5%
95 matches
-
49.4%
160 matches
51.9%
81 matches
30.4%
23 matches
41.7%
24 matches


mono-white aggro
769 matches

global
55.7%
[52.1%-59.1%]


izzet dragons ️
955 matches

global
48.5%
[45.3%-51.7%]
38.6%
220 matches
42.8%
152 matches
50.6%
160 matches
-
49.4%
89 matches
63.6%
33 matches
64.9%
37 matches


izzet dragons ️
955 matches

global
48.5%
[45.3%-51.7%]


temur aggro
484 matches

global
55.0%
[50.5%-59.3%]
47.1%
102 matches
73.1%
52 matches
48.1%
81 matches
50.6%
89 matches
-
60.0%
15 matches
100.0%
9 matches


temur aggro
484 matches

global
55.0%
[50.5%-59.3%]


grixis turns
163 matches

global
44.8%
[37.4%-52.5%]
39.4%
33 matches
30.0%
20 matches
69.6%
23 matches
36.4%
33 matches
40.0%
15 matches
-
25.0%
4 matches


grixis turns
163 matches

global
44.8%
[37.4%-52.5%]


mono-black aggro
167 matches

global
43.7%
[36.4%-51.3%]
41.2%
34 matches
29.4%
17 matches
58.3%
24 matches
35.1%
37 matches
0.0%
9 matches
75.0%
4 matches
-


mono-black aggro
167 matches

global
43.7%
[36.4%-51.3%]
vsmono-green aggro
vsizzet turns
vsmono-white aggro
vsizzet dragons ️
vstemur aggro
vsgrixis turns
vsmono-black aggro

Another noteworthy tournament this weekend was ”BIG MAGIC Sunday Weekly Challenge No.06”. The smaller of 48 players tournament also had some interesting off-meta decks in Mardu Fury, Esper Tempo and, the winning deck, Jund Midrange.

big magic sunday weekly challenge　no.06

17 October, 2021 - standard - 48 players

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Powered by win
 rate
vsmono-green aggro
vsizzet turns
vsmono-white aggro
vsizzet dragons ️
vsdimir control
vstemur aggro
vsjund midrange
vsazorius control
vsesper tempo


mono-green aggro
34 matches

global
67.6%
[50.8%-80.9%]
-
81.8%
11 matches
80.0%
5 matches
100.0%
1 matches
100.0%
2 matches
-
0.0%
2 matches
50.0%
2 matches
100.0%
1 matches


mono-green aggro
34 matches

global
67.6%
[50.8%-80.9%]


izzet turns
41 matches

global
39.0%
[25.7%-54.3%]
18.2%
11 matches
-
25.0%
4 matches
50.0%
2 matches
-
40.0%
5 matches
66.7%
3 matches
100.0%
3 matches
0.0%
2 matches


izzet turns
41 matches

global
39.0%
[25.7%-54.3%]


mono-white aggro
18 matches

global
55.6%
[33.7%-75.4%]
20.0%
5 matches
75.0%
4 matches
-
100.0%
2 matches
100.0%
1 matches
100.0%
1 matches
0.0%
2 matches
-
-


mono-white aggro
18 matches

global
55.6%
[33.7%-75.4%]


izzet dragons ️
11 matches

global
45.5%
[21.3%-72%]
0.0%
1 matches
50.0%
2 matches
0.0%
2 matches
-
0.0%
1 matches
100.0%
2 matches
-
-
0.0%
1 matches


izzet dragons ️
11 matches

global
45.5%
[21.3%-72%]


dimir control
7 matches

global
28.6%
[8.2%-64.1%]
0.0%
2 matches
-
0.0%
1 matches
100.0%
1 matches
-
0.0%
1 matches
-
0.0%
1 matches
-


dimir control
7 matches

global
28.6%
[8.2%-64.1%]


temur aggro
11 matches

global
45.5%
[21.3%-72%]
-
60.0%
5 matches
0.0%
1 matches
0.0%
2 matches
100.0%
1 matches
-
0.0%
1 matches
-
100.0%
1 matches


temur aggro
11 matches

global
45.5%
[21.3%-72%]


jund midrange
10 matches

global
80.0%
[49%-94.3%]
100.0%
2 matches
33.3%
3 matches
100.0%
2 matches
-
-
100.0%
1 matches
-
-
-


jund midrange
10 matches

global
80.0%
[49%-94.3%]


azorius control
9 matches

global
33.3%
[12.1%-64.6%]
50.0%
2 matches
0.0%
3 matches
-
-
100.0%
1 matches
-
-
-
0.0%
1 matches


azorius control
9 matches

global
33.3%
[12.1%-64.6%]


esper tempo
6 matches

global
66.7%
[30%-90.3%]
0.0%
1 matches
100.0%
2 matches
-
100.0%
1 matches
-
0.0%
1 matches
-
100.0%
1 matches
-


esper tempo
6 matches

global
66.7%
[30%-90.3%]
vsmono-green aggro
vsizzet turns
vsmono-white aggro
vsizzet dragons ️
vsdimir control
vstemur aggro
vsjund midrange
vsazorius control
vsesper tempo

jund midrange

54.8% global win rate

vs mono-black control

Biggest Deck(s)

Epiphany Decks

The three main builds of the Turns deck are:

Izzet Turns (9.11%)

izzet turns

52.2% global win rate

16.56% metagame share

vs mono-black control

vs mono-black zombies

vs mono-black midrange

This version of the deck packs the worst removal and plays the fewest creatures, making it easier prey for the aggro decks. However, it plays a stronger control game, making it the best choice against control and he other Turns decks.

Grixis Turns (3.09%)

grixis turns

47.8% global win rate

vs mono-black control

Grixis Turns comes with more removal, and a few more creatures, but Infernal Grasp’s cost of paying 2 life is really felt against aggressive decks. As well, it comes at the cost of a tougher mana-base which can cause it to falter.

Izzet Dragons (20.33%)

izzet dragons ️

47.1% global win rate

vs mono-black control

vs jund planeswalkers

Izzet Dragons plays a slightly more proactive game, as Goldspan Dragon helps turn the corner more quickly. The treasures made by the Dragon give you the ability to play interaction the turn it’s cast or can be saved to ramp into Epiphany.

The turns decks, as frustrating as some might find them play against, seem to be losing purchase. While making up over 30% of the metagame between its different flavours, these decks seem to be struggling against the more aggressive decks of the format, despite matching up well against traditional control decks. Notably, people seem to be moving away from Izzet and Grixis Turns in favour of Izzet Dragons.

Mono-Colour Aggro

This weekend saw three flavours of mono-colour aggro, all of which are snow-based:

Mono-Green (17.64%)

mono-green aggro

54% global win rate

17.83% metagame share

vs mono-black control

vs mono-black zombies

Mono-Green seems to be the aggro deck of choice, being the most played deck in the Red Bull tournament. It sports winning match-ups against all of the Turns decks, and most of the field.

Mono-White (12.85%)

mono-white aggro

54% global win rate

14.28% metagame share

vs mono-white control

vs mono-black control

vs mono-black zombies

40.0% win rate

40 tracked matches

vs golgari planeswalkers

Mono-White has a more varied set of match-ups, being slightly soft to the Turns decks, but better against the aggro decks in the format. While making up less of the metagame, it has a similar overall win-rate to Mono-Green.

Mono-Black (3.17%)

mono-black aggro

43.7% global win rate

vs mono-black control

This deck is a newer deck, which uses cheap and disposable creatures to push damage. When the creatures are no longer relevant, the deck converts them into card and burn using Deadly Dispute and The Meathook Massacre.

The aggro decks seem to be carving out places on the podium, with Mono-Green taking multiple spots in the top 8. Mono-White also nabbed a spot in the top 8 while having about 5% less of the metagame share, which, along side its win-rate, shows the deck has potential. Mono-Black aggro however, had a worse showing, only really competing against Grixis Turns and Mono-White Aggro. It seems rougher overall, but some tuning and a metagame shift may help it to shine.

Meta Predictions

With the pressure that mono-coloured aggro decks, in particular Mono-Green, are placing on the turns-based decks, I suspect we’ll see less of Turns decks over the next few weeks. With a growing absence of the combo-control decks and increase in aggro decks, I suspect that more midrange style decks will end up being played. In particular, if those midrange decks come equipped with cards like Go Blank to combat the lingering turns decks, they’ll stand to carve out a place on the podium among the aggro decks. With that said, that will still be a challenge given the variety and quality of cards that Mono-Green and Mono-White have.

Mono-Green has a lot of threats that are incredibly “sticky”. Between Old-Growth Troll, Esika’s Chariot and Ranger’s Class, there are many cards that are difficult to interact with favourably. Similarly Mono-White has plenty of good bodies that also provide interaction in Elite Spellbinder, Reidane, God of the Worthy, Brutal Cathar and Skyclave Apparition. These cards are going to make sure midrange decks fight for every game they win, making the aggro decks still a strong force in the metagame.

What I’d Play

In a Tournament

For a tournament, I think Mono-White has been posting good results against both the Turns decks and the Mono-Green decks, with the exception of Grixis Turns. However, since Grixis Turns’ only positive matchup is this as well, with the amount of tacked-on removal that it has access to, I think it’s the best option against any midrange decks that may show up in the coming weeks. In particular, I think the strongest draw to the deck is Reidane which helps slow down the snow-based aggro decks, and also hampers many of the control decks.

Mono-White Aggro - Tourney Build

by Arty

Buy on TCGplayer $70.6

Standard

Aggro

best of 3

mythic
rare
uncommon
common

Creatures (31)

Chaplain of Alms

$0.70

Stonebinder's Familiar

$1.40

$1.40

$1.96

$7.16

$1.47

$1.96

$1.98

Adeline, Resplendent Cathar

$51.96

Instants (2)

Fateful Absence

$1.58

Artifacts (4)

Portable Hole

$1.98

Maul of the Skyclaves

$0.98

Lands (23)

Snow-Covered Plains

$7.41

Faceless Haven

$2.36

60 Cards
$84.3

Sideboard

Sungold Sentinel

$0.49

Skyclave Apparition

$7.47

Guardian of Faith

$12.98

Reidane, God of the Worthy

$2.07

Fateful Absence

$1.58

Portable Hole

$0.99

Curse of Silence

$0.98

Cave of the Frost Dragon

$0.49

15 Cards
$27.05

On Ladder

On the ladder, I expect to see more aggressive decks – many of which are snow-based. Add this to the fact that many of the ladder’s Turns decks will likely be playing sweepers, this makes Reidane a great pick over Adeline for the main. With 3 out of the 4 copies of Adeline moved to the side, I decided the 4th should also get moved to the board. In it’s place Skyclave Apparition comes in, as having a catch-all answer for odd permanents you might face comes in handy.

Mono-White Aggro - Ladder Build

by Arty

Buy on TCGplayer $70.6

Standard

Aggro

best of 3