Zendikar Rising Championship Meta Analysis Part 2: Historic

Table of Contents

HISTORIC MATCHUP DATA
- Record (Win-Loss)
- Win Rate (%)
Sultai Midrange (44-33, 57%)Four-Color Midrange (111-84, 57%)
Azorius Control (22-25, 46.8%)
Goblins (47-54, 46.5%)
Jund Sacrifice (96-96, 50%)Rakdos Sacrifice (53-47, 53%)
Azorius Auras (19-37, 33.9%)
CONCLUSION

For more information on what the Zendikar Rising Championships are, how the players got there, and what’s at stake, check out Part 1 for Standard as well as the tournament coverage:

The Zendikar Rising Championship gave some really strong insight into how the most popular formats have developed in the hands of the top players. Unfortunately, Historic is in a fairly unhealthy position and likely requires some changes. The following analysis should provide some insight into what might need changes.

HISTORIC MATCHUP DATA

There were 7 preliminary rounds of the highest caliber Historic played in the tournament including the top 8. The below matchup tables excludes the top 8 matches, giving us a total of 787 matches to analyze.

Record (Win-Loss)

	Azorius Auras	Azorius Control	Four-Color Midrange	Sultai Midrange	Goblins	Jund Sacrifice	Rakdos Sacrifice	TOTAL
Azorius Auras		1-3	3-8	3-2	1-5	0-7	2-7	19-56
Azorius Control	3-1		7-7	1-3	2-3	3-4	3-1	22-25
Four-Color Midrange	8-3	7-7		6-9	15-10	26-13	12-8	111-84
Sultai Midrange	2-3	3-1	9-6		3-1	9-5	3-6	44-33
Goblins	5-1	3-2	10-15	1-3		9-15	4-5	47-54
Jund Sacrifice	7-0	4-3	13-26	5-9	15-9		13-12	96-96
Rakdos Sacrifice	7-2	1-3	8-12	6-3	5-4	12-13		53-47

Win Rate (%)

	Azorius Auras	Azorius Control	Four-Color Midrange	Sultai Midrange	Goblins	Jund Sacrifice	Rakdos Sacrifice	TOTAL
Azorius Auras		25.00%	27.27%	60.00%	16.67%	0.00%	22.22%	33.93%
Azorius Control	75.00%		50.00%	25.00%	40.00%	42.86%	75.00%	46.81%
Four-Color Midrange	72.73%	50.00%		40.00%	60.00%	66.67%	60.00%	56.92%
Sultai Midrange	40.00%	75.00%	60.00%		75.00%	64.29%	33.33%	57.14%
Goblins	83.33%	60.00%	40.00%	25.00%		37.50%	44.44%	46.53%
Jund Sacrifice	100.00%	57.14%	33.33%	35.71%	62.50%		52.00%	50.00%
Rakdos Sacrifice	77.78%	25.00%	40.00%	66.67%	55.56%	48.00%		53.00%

Sultai Midrange (44-33, 57%)
Four-Color Midrange (111-84, 57%)

[sd_deck deck=”CR1t0KnjC”]

[sd_deck deck=”FWYsIwu7n”]

Sultai and Four-Color Midrange had an amazing weekend. The deck put 6 players into the Top 8 and both archetypes had absurd win percentages against the field, with Sultai going 44-33 (57%) and Four-Color going 111-84 (57%). The archetypes had a combined metagame share of 28.3%. This is troubling information to me. The deck was a known quantity and had a high metagame share, which is usually enough for people to attempt to target the deck. Despite this, the archetypes had a high Top 8 turnover rate and posted strong win percentages against the field anyway. I would argue something from this archetype needs to be banned as it has posted strong win rates and dangerously high metagame shares for far too long, which warrants a shake-up in my view. Either archetype is extremely potent, and a top choice for the ladder if you want to rank up.

Azorius Control (22-25, 46.8%)

[sd_deck deck=”DP2VsGSWi”]

Azorius Control had a completely difference in performance this weekend, likely explained by the strength of the pilots. Bradley Barclay took the deck to an undefeated finish, winning the tournament with almost perfect play. However, his fellow UW Control pilots didn’t do so well. The deck went 22-25 (46.8%) in the preliminary rounds. The deck looked powerful when it got to execute its gameplan, but the sample size of data in this tournament isn’t enough to give strong information on any matchup. For example, the deck looked to be favored on coverage against Sultai variants, but posted an 8-10 record against the archetypes. Hold judgement on this archetype for now, but it’s definitely worth testing, especially as it won the tournament.

Goblins (47-54, 46.5%)

[sd_deck deck=”yg5tITMXz”]

Goblins has a very similar story to UW Control this weekend, with Autumn Burchett taking the deck to 2nd place in the tournament while also going 47-54 (46.5%) in the preliminary rounds. Autumn Burchett proved that the deck is still very strong and definitely has legs to run well in this meta, especially with some main deck tweaks for a high Sultai meta. For example, Herald’s Horn was initially a sideboard card, but with the presence of Sultai, Autumn moved some copies to the main deck to improve her starting matches. Moving forward, I would expect Goblins players to transition to something similar to Burchett’s build because of the dominance and prevalence of Sultai/4C Midrange decks.

Jund Sacrifice (96-96, 50%)
Rakdos Sacrifice (53-47, 53%)

[sd_deck deck=”-1tIJamRq”]

[sd_deck deck=”Al1yXhPZN”]

Sacrifice decks had a disappointing weekend as no player got into the Top 8 with the archetype. Although it posted a slightly positive win percentage of 149-143 (51%) combined, I think that’s not nearly good enough considering the archetype made up 30% of the metagame. Part of the reason the deck did so poorly is because 4C Control and Sultai decks are pretty favored against the archetype, with 4C decks having some Yasharn, Implacable Earth in the main deck to turn off the deck’s main engines. With the prevalence of main deck hate cards for the archetype, it’s no surprise that the deck didn’t perform well. The deck can do very powerful things, however, and if the meta is unprepared for Sacrifice, expect it to eat up tournaments.

Azorius Auras (19-37, 33.9%)

[sd_deck deck=”zpki5OmD0″]

UW Auras was the worst performing deck of the weekend and I’m unsure why people are still playing this deck. It doesn’t have a good matchup against the Sultai variants or the Sacrifice variants which constitute roughly 60% of the meta, which is the exact opposite of where you want an archetype to be. The deck went 19-37 (33.9%) and didn’t post a positive win percentage against any of the top decks. The deck is more powerful than before in a vacuum with the addition of Sram, but in the context of a format with cheap removal, it is ultimately worse.

CONCLUSION

I find Historic to be in an unhealthy state right now. With the format so warped around 2 archetypes, one necessitating main deck hate and another having no bad matchups over the course of the weekend when put to the test at the highest level, there needs to be changes. I am not qualified to make any suggestions on which cards need to be banned or what cards need to be added in an Anthology to help the format recover, but 60% of the metagame being held by 2 main archetypes isn’t healthy. A format requiring main deck hate cards and one deck making up 6 of the Top 8 spots isn’t great either.

Hopefully WotC’s team can find a way to balance the format before another major event occurs. Despite Historic being a bit gridlocked at the top levels, there’s still a lot of play and innovation occurring on ladder so even if no changes happen soon, it’s still an enjoyable format overall.