Standard Metagame Data Analysis: Finding the Best Deck from the 8 SCG Tour Online Satellites

Crawling-Barrens-Zendikar-Rising-MtG-Art

Hello and welcome back! There was another SCG Satellite event this past weekend, this time in Standard. Standard has had some issues in the past, but after a few (a lot of) bannings, the format seems to be a lot healthier. Let’s take a dive into the data coming out of the Satellite tournaments to see where the format has settled, and where I expect it to go moving forward. You can find the combined SCG Satellite data here.

  • Click here for the results of the Standard Kaldheim Championship Qualifier from the weekend;
  • Click on the headings of the deck archetypes to view their respective decklists;
  • Click here for last week’s Historic tournament results and analysis.

Mono Green Food

Decks% of FieldWinsLossesWin %
12012.5%28921757.1%

Mono Green Food, a deck that gained traction early this month after the MPL Splits, has continued to be a powerful force. The highest performing deck of the weekend, garnering a 57% win percentage, continues to be dominant. Maintaining even or favorable matchups against almost every archetype, only having a negative win percentage against Temur Adventures, going 51-67 (43.2%).

The deck has incredibly good matchups against Dimir Control (67%), Rogues (67%), Gruul (58%), and Mono Red (73%), and is fairly even against Esper Doom (46.3%). It’s only bad matchup is against Temur Adventures (43%), as stated previously. Mono Green Food is clearly the best grindy deck in the format. It keeps up with Esper Doom which is an incredibly difficult task, and uses the grind to trounce the rest of the format. The deck Food players need to watch out for is Temur Adventures, as it’s difficult to grind against a deck that easily goes over the top of you.

Dimir Control

Decks% of FieldWinsLossesWin %
60 cards: 505.2%9613042.5%
80 cards: 606.3%15312355.4%

Despite Food being the best deck of the format on paper, Dimir Yorion Control is a deck people need to pay attention to. The deck is only about two weeks old, with DoggertQBones publishing a guide on it November 16th. From then, it only picked up popularity last week when it Top 8ed the CFB Clash event on the 21st, then winning the Standard Challenge on the 22nd, meaning that the majority of the deck’s pilots only have at most one week of experience with the deck going into the Kaldheim Championship Qualifier. It’s very uncommon for a deck to perform this well after only existing for such a short period of time. The archetype is still in the process of being tuned, meaning the bad matchups of Temur Adventures and Food could very well become even. The 55% win percentage is likely the deck’s floor. Even pro players like Grzegorz Kowalksi and Aaron Gertler think the deck has potential.

When we compare the 2 different versions of the deck, the Yorion version is clearly better. It outperformed the 60 card version by 13 points overall, and it had better or even matchups against every single archetype. It took Rogues from about even to 61%, Doom from 36% to 71%, Gruul from under 30% to 55%, and roughly maintained the same win percentages against Food and Temur Adventures. After speaking with DoggertQBones about the deck, he said “in my testing, Food seemed good if there wasn’t a Witch’s Oven in play. I don’t think this matchup is as bad as the data suggests.” If his analysis is correct, then Dimir Control has the potential to become one of the most feared archetypes.

Temur Adventures

Decks% of FieldWinsLossesWin %
19220%39234753%

Temur Adventures was one of the decks to beat this weekend and the King’s not dead, making up 20% of the meta and posting a 53% win percentage against the field with nearly 750 matches played. It took a moment for the deck to re-emerge after the bannings of Omnath, Uro, Escape to the Wilds, and Lucky Clover, but the Adventure package is still a force to be reckoned with. The deck offers some interaction with Brazen Borrower and Bonecrusher Giant to stem the bleeding until you can resolve Genesis Ultimatum and take over the game, while also having the ability to grind when it needs to from the inherent card advantage in the Adventure mechanic along with Edgewall Innkeeper.

Without the need to play the most powerful even cards in the format, Omnath and Lucky Clover, the deck gained access to a powerful companion in Obosh, the Preypiercer. The Adventure cards allow you to play Obosh without sacrificing your curve, and the Odd Hellion is a force to be reckoned with, especially combined with Terror of the Peaks. The card often leads to single turn kills, warranting its inclusion quite nicely. The deck’s only bad matchup is against Rogues (32-56), as it struggles to deal with the pressure and interaction at the same time.

Mono Red Aggro

Decks% of FieldWinsLossesWin %
414.3%898750.6%

Another deck that crept up in popularity was Mono Red Aggro. The deck didn’t perform super well, going 89-87 in the satellite events, however Lorenzo Pollone took it to a 10-2 finish in the Qualifier. The deck had solid matchups against Rogues (74%) and Esper Doom (67%), but struggled against Food (27%). It only had a 2 match difference against Gruul Adventures and Temur Adventures, meaning the deck has potential.

I wouldn’t put too much hope in the archetype however, as its worst matchup is the best performing deck of the weekend and the linear strategy is pretty easy to tech for, meaning it’s win percentage is likely to decrease against Dimir Control and the Adventure decks. It did prove that you need to keep it in mind though, so don’t come to a tournament unprepared for Mono Red. If Kaldheim brings the deck another good 1-drop, I would consider picking up the deck again.

Gruul Adventures

Decks% of FieldWinsLossesWin %
15115.8%32230451.4%

This deck is one of the old favorites of the format, becoming popular following the mass bannings and remained a pillar of the format since. It retained a solid win percentage of 51.4%, despite being a known quantity. The deck performed quite nicely against Temur Adventures (72-65, 52%) and Rogues (49-42, 54%), while being even against Esper Doom (24-25). The deck did perform quite poorly against Food (39-54) however, and with Food likely picking up in popularity following this weekend, I wouldn’t want to pick this deck up for the time being.

Dimir Rogues

Decks% of FieldWinsLossesWin %
10711.2%21922249.7%

Rogues is probably one of the healthiest deck archetypes in the format in terms of win percentage. It has good and bad matchups along with interactive gameplay, so no matter which side of the matchup you’re on, it makes you feel as if every decision matters, which is exactly what I want from a deck.

Rogues’ good matchups are Esper Doom and Temur Adventures. Rogues does well against these decks because it offers pressure and interaction, which is difficult for the archetype to deal with in tandem. 

The bad matchups are a bit more problematic though. Let’s start with UB Control (80). It’s difficult for Rogues to mill out a deck with 80 cards, and the permission magic in Rogues doesn’t line up well against a deck that has better permission and board control. UB Control (80) makes it extremely difficult for Rogues to execute their gameplan. Against Food, milling them is actually a detriment, as they have cards like Feasting Troll King and Chainweb Arachnir to come back while also providing targets for Scavenging Ooze. Your aggressive game plan is also weak against them because of cards like Wicked Wolf that are difficult to deal with once in play.

Rogues had a mediocre performance this weekend, getting the win in 49.6% of matchups, which needed to be slightly higher to justify its large meta share at 10%. If there is an uptick in Temur Adventures, I would expect an uptick in this deck to soon follow.

One of the benefits of Rogues is that there are so many different tools the deck has, meaning the archetype has the potential to shift into a deck that can improve the Temur Adventures matchup, such as this one featuring Slitherwisp.

1224275
Export to:
Creature (18)
4
Brazen Borrower
4
Slitherwisp
4
Soaring Thought-Thief
4
Thieves' Guild Enforcer
2
Zareth San, the Trickster
Sorcery (1)
1
Agadeem's Awakening/Agadeem, the Undercrypt
Instant (15)
2
Didn't Say Please
4
Drown in the Loch
2
Eliminate
1
Essence Scatter
2
Heartless Act
4
Into the Story
Enchantment (3)
3
Omen of the Sea
Land (23)
4
Clearwater Pathway/Murkwater Pathway
4
Fabled Passage
3
Island
4
Swamp
4
Temple of Deceit
4
Zagoth Triome
Cards 60
Sideboard (15)
2
Anticognition
3
Cling to Dust
1
Heartless Act
4
Mystical Dispute
4
Negate
1
Soul Shatter

Esper Doom

Decks% of FieldWinsLossesWin %
838.7%15516848%

Esper Doom was the saddest story of the weekend. A deck beloved by many failed to post a strong positive win percentage against any archetype that wasn’t 60 card UB Control, and as I mentioned earlier, that version is likely to disappear soon. It failed miserably against Rogues and UB Yorion Control, and had effectively even matchups against Gruul, Food, and Temur. While being able to maintain ground with the top dogs is good, it only really matters if you can also beat the rest of the meta, which the archetype failed to do. I would move away from this archetype if I could.

Conclusion

  • Mono Green Food: I expect Food to increase in meta percentage. The deck had the best performance against the field, so there is no reason this deck shouldn’t be picked up by more players.
  • Dimir Control: If people can properly tune for the above matchups, this can be the best deck. I expect this deck to increase in popularity on the ladder as more people test changes.
  • Temur Adventures: I expect this deck to increase in meta percentage following Food’s uptick in popularity, as it goes over the top of Food quite easily.
  • Mono Red Aggro: Put this deck on the backburner. If Kaldheim gives the deck another good one drop, then it can be good. Its bad matchups are going to become more popular in the coming weeks.
  • Gruul Adventures: I believe more people will shift to Temur Adventures, as Gruul tends to struggle against Food whereas Temur can consistently beat it. However, for those who like aggro, it’s still a strong option in the metagame.
  • Dimir Rogues: This deck should increase in popularity as the game plan is good against Temur Adventures and people will test tech for the Food matchup.
  • Esper Doom: People who like to grind should move off of this deck to Mono Green Food or UB Yorion. Both decks do what this deck wants to do, but better while also improving most, if not all, of your major matchups.

Terence

Welcome to MTG Arena Zone!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *