Standard Metagame Analysis – Innistrad: Midnight Hunt Week 7

Tournaments

This weekend saw relatively few tournaments, with only 7 to speak of, including Red Bull’s Untapped. Aside from two, the tournaments saw anywhere from 20 to 50 players. The Redbull Untapped this week only had 755 players, a sizable step down from last week’s 1026, but was still easily the largest tournament of the weekend. We’ll cover that in more detail shortly.

red bull untapped 2021 international stop iii [japan time]
30 October, 2021 - standard - 755 players
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win
rate
vs
mono-green aggro
vs
izzet turns
vs
mono-white aggro
vs
izzet dragons ️
vs
temur aggro
vs
jund midrange
vs
grixis turns
mono-green aggro
651 matches
global 53.5% [49.6%-57.3%]
-
53.4%
148 matches
51.9%
135 matches
61.2%
98 matches
58.8%
34 matches
41.2%
34 matches
55.9%
34 matches
mono-green aggro
651 matches
global 53.5% [49.6%-57.3%]
izzet turns
523 matches
global 54.5% [50.2%-58.7%]
46.6%
148 matches
-
59.1%
93 matches
61.1%
90 matches
48.6%
35 matches
44.0%
25 matches
61.5%
13 matches
izzet turns
523 matches
global 54.5% [50.2%-58.7%]
mono-white aggro
449 matches
global 48.6% [44%-53.2%]
48.1%
135 matches
40.9%
93 matches
-
49.3%
75 matches
47.6%
21 matches
47.4%
19 matches
60.0%
15 matches
mono-white aggro
449 matches
global 48.6% [44%-53.2%]
global 46.3% [41.5%-51.2%]
38.8%
98 matches
38.9%
90 matches
50.7%
75 matches
-
50.0%
28 matches
23.5%
17 matches
46.7%
15 matches
global 46.3% [41.5%-51.2%]
temur aggro
149 matches
global 49.7% [41.7%-57.6%]
41.2%
34 matches
51.4%
35 matches
52.4%
21 matches
50.0%
28 matches
-
50.0%
4 matches
60.0%
5 matches
temur aggro
149 matches
global 49.7% [41.7%-57.6%]
jund midrange
144 matches
global 58.3% [50.2%-66.1%]
58.8%
34 matches
56.0%
25 matches
52.6%
19 matches
76.5%
17 matches
50.0%
4 matches
-
60.0%
5 matches
jund midrange
144 matches
global 58.3% [50.2%-66.1%]
grixis turns
108 matches
global 44.4% [35.4%-53.8%]
44.1%
34 matches
38.5%
13 matches
40.0%
15 matches
53.3%
15 matches
40.0%
5 matches
40.0%
5 matches
-
grixis turns
108 matches
global 44.4% [35.4%-53.8%]
vs
mono-green aggro
vs
izzet turns
vs
mono-white aggro
vs
izzet dragons ️
vs
temur aggro
vs
jund midrange
vs
grixis turns

The other larger tournament this weekend was one from the 5CH LATAM Series, with 123 players. This tournament didn’t have any stand-out decks make top 8, but its metagame share is incredibly similar to that of the Red Bull Untapped tournament this week. As well, the top 8 of LATAM lines up with the metagame you might expect, with the top 8 having Mono-White Aggro, Mono-Green Aggro, Izzet Turns and Jund Midrange among other decks.

5ch inter tiendas by 5ch latam series vol. iv
30 October, 2021 - standard - 123 players
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win
rate
vs
mono-green aggro
vs
izzet turns
vs
mono-white aggro
vs
izzet dragons ️
vs
temur aggro
vs
jund midrange
vs
mono-black control
vs
sultai midrange
vs
grixis control
mono-green aggro
117 matches
global 35.0% [27%-44%]
-
44.4%
18 matches
25.0%
24 matches
50.0%
10 matches
44.4%
9 matches
28.6%
7 matches
9.1%
11 matches
28.6%
7 matches
25.0%
4 matches
mono-green aggro
117 matches
global 35.0% [27%-44%]
izzet turns
62 matches
global 54.8% [42.5%-66.6%]
55.6%
18 matches
-
58.3%
12 matches
60.0%
5 matches
40.0%
5 matches
20.0%
5 matches
50.0%
6 matches
100.0%
2 matches
100.0%
2 matches
izzet turns
62 matches
global 54.8% [42.5%-66.6%]
global 62.1% [51.6%-71.5%]
75.0%
24 matches
41.7%
12 matches
-
75.0%
8 matches
75.0%
4 matches
36.4%
11 matches
50.0%
4 matches
66.7%
3 matches
25.0%
4 matches
global 62.1% [51.6%-71.5%]
global 37.2% [24.4%-52.1%]
50.0%
10 matches
40.0%
5 matches
25.0%
8 matches
-
25.0%
4 matches
0.0%
3 matches
33.3%
3 matches
-
-
global 37.2% [24.4%-52.1%]
temur aggro
34 matches
global 52.9% [36.7%-68.5%]
55.6%
9 matches
60.0%
5 matches
25.0%
4 matches
75.0%
4 matches
-
33.3%
3 matches
100.0%
1 matches
0.0%
1 matches
0.0%
2 matches
temur aggro
34 matches
global 52.9% [36.7%-68.5%]
jund midrange
43 matches
global 60.5% [45.6%-73.6%]
71.4%
7 matches
80.0%
5 matches
63.6%
11 matches
100.0%
3 matches
66.7%
3 matches
-
0.0%
1 matches
0.0%
4 matches
75.0%
4 matches
jund midrange
43 matches
global 60.5% [45.6%-73.6%]
global 64.7% [47.9%-78.5%]
90.9%
11 matches
50.0%
6 matches
50.0%
4 matches
66.7%
3 matches
0.0%
1 matches
100.0%
1 matches
-
-
25.0%
4 matches
global 64.7% [47.9%-78.5%]
global 60.0% [38.7%-78.1%]
71.4%
7 matches
0.0%
2 matches
33.3%
3 matches
-
100.0%
1 matches
100.0%
4 matches
-
-
0.0%
1 matches
global 60.0% [38.7%-78.1%]
grixis control
22 matches
global 63.6% [43%-80.3%]
75.0%
4 matches
0.0%
2 matches
75.0%
4 matches
-
100.0%
2 matches
25.0%
4 matches
75.0%
4 matches
100.0%
1 matches
-
grixis control
22 matches
global 63.6% [43%-80.3%]
vs
mono-green aggro
vs
izzet turns
vs
mono-white aggro
vs
izzet dragons ️
vs
temur aggro
vs
jund midrange
vs
mono-black control
vs
sultai midrange
vs
grixis control

Biggest Deck(s)

The big decks of last week’s Red Bull Tournament are still alive and well, and you can check out how they did last week here:

 Here’s how their shares have changed over the past 3 weeks:

DeckWeek 5Week 6Week 7
Izzet Turns9.11%10.36%10.99%
Grixis Turns3.09%2.35%4.11%
Izzet Dragons20.33%13.20%18.01%
Mono-Green Aggro17.64%22.29%22.25%
Mono-White Aggro12.85%14.27%14.70%
Mono-Black Aggro3.17%0.39%0.93%
Temur Aggro7.85%7.99%4.77%
Jund Midrange0.89%2.29%3.44%

Mono-Coloured Aggro

mono-white aggro
54% global win rate
14.32% metagame share
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vs selesnya blink
100.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs esper epiphany
100.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs jund control
100.0% win rate
6 tracked matches
worst against
vs izzet tempo
33.3% win rate
9 tracked matches
vs mardu fury
33.3% win rate
15 tracked matches
vs rakdos tokens
12.5% win rate
8 tracked matches

Even while the Mono-White Aggro decks have been picking up meta share over the past few weeks, this week the deck didn’t fare as well as you might think. In Week 5 and Week 6, Mono-White posted winrates above 53%. This week, it’s winrate has fallen to 48.6%. While I do think there may be variance at play for it to fall so much, with the deck making up almost 15% of the metagame, there’s no doubt part of the reason is that other decks are coming prepared to fight it. However, even despite that, Mono-White took top spot in this week’s tournament. 

mono-green aggro
54.1% global win rate
17.83% metagame share
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best against
vs boros burn
100.0% win rate
8 tracked matches
vs izzet mill
100.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs esper tempo
90.0% win rate
10 tracked matches
worst against
vs rakdos sacrifice
33.3% win rate
9 tracked matches
vs mardu midrange
33.3% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs boros humans
28.6% win rate
7 tracked matches

On the other hand, Mono-Green has been a rock over the past three weeks. This week and last, it hovered around 22% of the metagame, and all three weeks it had a winrate of around 53%, while putting multiple copies into the top 8 – even coming first in Week 5. As I said in my Week 5 article, Green’s threats are incredibly resilient, meaning that it’s hard to deal with the deck with one-for-one removal alone. To put up a good fight against it you also need to be pressuring it along side the removal, or out-tempoing it completely.

Turns Decks

grixis turns
48.2% global win rate
2.64% metagame share
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vs rakdos vampires
100.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs dimir rogues
85.7% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs jeskai control
80.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
worst against
vs selesnya ramp
37.5% win rate
8 tracked matches
vs orzhov aggro
20.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs rakdos midrange
0.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
izzet dragons ️
47.1% global win rate
7.48% metagame share
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best against
vs rakdos control
80.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs dimir tempo
77.8% win rate
9 tracked matches
vs jeskai epiphany
75.0% win rate
8 tracked matches
worst against
vs esper epiphany
33.3% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs mono-red aggro
14.3% win rate
7 tracked matches
vs jund werewolves
14.3% win rate
7 tracked matches

While Grixis Turns and Izzet Dragons both had an uptick in meta share, neither fared particularly well in the tournament. Both decks had winrates just shy of 48%, which is not where you want to be when you make up a combined 22% of the metagame. Despite trying to play more creatures and interaction, it still seems that the aggressive decks are too fast for these Turns decks.

izzet turns
52.3% global win rate
16.45% metagame share
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best against
vs mono-white humans
100.0% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs sultai control
90.0% win rate
10 tracked matches
vs rakdos control
87.5% win rate
8 tracked matches
worst against
vs grixis treasures
20.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs mono-black midrange
20.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs temur werewolves
0.0% win rate
7 tracked matches

While those decks lagged, Izzet Turns made a comeback. While picking up less than a percent in metagame share, its winrate this week was 55.7% – a stark contrast from last week’s 52.5%. I think this can be attributed to some of the Turns decks hedging on not having to face Control decks, since Control has been slaughtered in the past few weeks. From there, they’ve opted to tech their decks to better fight aggro, and it seems to be paying off. One such example is the version of Izzet Turns which came 2nd in the tournament. This deck trims any hard counters, with only a handful of Divide by Zero to combat spells, and instead plays Unexpected Windfall and an extra Galvanic Iteration to try and combo off faster and more consistently.

Izzet Turns (Red Bull Untapped III - 2nd Place)
by Arty
Standard
Control
best of 3
6 mythic
18 rare
18 uncommon
18 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Instants (25)
2
Fading Hope
$0.50
1
Negate
$2.49
1
Burning Hands
$0.25
1
Cathartic Pyre
$0.25
2
Demon Bolt
$0.50
3
Divide by Zero
$0.75
3
Memory Deluge
$32.97
Sorceries (13)
Lands (22)
6
Island
$1.50
6
Mountain
$1.50
1
Field of Ruin
$0.25
3
Frostboil Snarl
$16.47
60 Cards
$218.98
15 Cards
$39.45

Surprise Winners

Sultai Tempo

sultai tempo
50.8% global win rate
0.75% metagame share
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best against
vs dimir control
72.7% win rate
11 tracked matches
vs bant ramp
66.7% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs jund midrange
66.7% win rate
12 tracked matches
worst against
vs izzet dragons ️
50.0% win rate
38 tracked matches
vs izzet turns
45.8% win rate
24 tracked matches
vs mono-white aggro
37.0% win rate
27 tracked matches

Sultai Tempo is a deck that I feel was inspired by Temur Aggro. Rather than being truly Sultai, it’s mainly a Golgari ramp deck that splashes for Negate and Disdainful Stroke. Its plan is to play Emergent Sequence and Binding the Old Gods to ramp into Wrenn and Seven and Tovolar’s Huntmaster, while also having solid creatures and interaction in the early game. Some of those creatures are Tainted Adversary and Primal Adversary which can be played early, but are also good late since you can pump your extra mana into them.

Sultai Tempo (Red Bull Untapped III - 3-4th)
by Arty
Standard
Control
best of 3
8 mythic
31 rare
11 uncommon
10 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Planeswalkers (4)
4
Wrenn and Seven
$87.96
Creatures (10)
Instants (6)
1
Negate
$2.49
2
Power Word Kill
$0.50
2
Infernal Grasp
$4.98
Sorceries (7)
2
Crippling Fear
$2.98
1
Culling Ritual
$6.99
Artifacts (4)
4
Esika's Chariot
$13.96
Enchantments (3)
Lands (26)
4
Forest
$1.40
1
Island
$0.25
1
Swamp
$0.25
4
Darkbore Pathway
$37.96
2
Shipwreck Marsh
$33.98
1
Rimewood Falls
$0.99
1
Woodland Chasm
$0.79
60 Cards
$309.76
Sideboard
3
Skyclave Shade
$1.47
1
Infernal Grasp
$2.49
4
Go Blank
$3.16
1
Culling Ritual
$6.99
15 Cards
$25.47

Esper Control

esper control
46.5% global win rate
1.21% metagame share
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best against
vs grixis control
83.3% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs orzhov clerics
83.3% win rate
6 tracked matches
vs mono-red aggro
83.3% win rate
6 tracked matches
worst against
vs jund midrange
23.3% win rate
30 tracked matches
vs jeskai control
20.0% win rate
5 tracked matches
vs izzet delver
16.7% win rate
6 tracked matches

This deck is mainly a Dimir Control deck that splashes for Vanishing Verse. Vanishing Verse is likely one of the strongest removal spells in the format, especially with so many mono-colour aggro decks and great mono-coloured cards being played in general.  This deck differs from the previous Dimir Control lists by leaning more into creatures and tempo than removal and hard counters. Lier, Disciple of the Drowned and Sedgemoor Witch, played alongside Duress and Consider make for a powerful combination. Another powerful interaction is Divide by Zero effectively letting you counter a spell through Lier’s ability, which lets you buy time and leverage your board presence.

Esper Control (Red Bull Untapped III - 3-4th)
by Arty
Standard
Control
best of 3
3 mythic
28 rare
12 uncommon
17 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Creatures (7)
4
Sedgemoor Witch
$21.96
Instants (20)
4
Consider
$7.96
2
Fading Hope
$0.50
4
Vanishing Verse
$13.96
4
Divide by Zero
$1.00
Sorceries (7)
4
Duress
$1.00
Artifacts (1)
1
The Celestus
$3.49
Lands (25)
3
Island
$0.75
2
Swamp
$0.50
2
Field of Ruin
$0.50
2
Deserted Beach
$17.98
3
Shipwreck Marsh
$50.97
60 Cards
$251.72
15 Cards
$24.75

Meta Predictions

I said last week that we’d see the big decks soak up meta share of fringe decks. I may have jumped the gun on that prediction, as this week saw the top 5 decks take up around 70% of the meta share, just like last week. Alongside that, 2 of the top 8 decks are decks from archetypes which have low metagame shares, showing that there’s still room to brew and fight the big decks of the format. I think with enough time, the format would continue to homogenize over time, however after seeing this week’s results I don’t this will happen before Crimson Vow shakes up the format (even as the terror of Alchemist’s Gambit looms large).

Other than that, since the share of aggro remains high (and since I believe Mono-White is already showing the signs it’s working), I think we’ll see more decks come equipped with removal and sweepers. I also think that Jund Midrange is likely to see even more of a rise than it has this week, as it has the tools to fight through aggro decks, while getting under the Turns decks with a little help from the disruption it gets from being in Black.

One other thing that I think will continue to happen, and seems to be happening faster than I would have thought, is the re-emergence of Izzet Turns. As I mentioned in a previous article, Turns completely goes over the top of traditional control decks. They effectively get to play the same game as Control, but their win-condition is much more explosive and harder to interact with. However, that’s only true if the Izzet Turns decks are playing a shell that’s more invested in card advantage and countermagic. If it plays sweepers and cheap removal, most of its cards are blanks, and the control deck can simply wait and counter the cards that matter. However, with such little control (and with the control that’s left leaning more into tempo), the Izzet Turns decks are free to play a deck more tuned against creatures with little chance of being punished for it.


What I’d Play

While I think you’ll need to be aware that the Turns is making a comeback, I’m not convinced that it’s the best place to be, being the face of the format and all. I also think that there’s one decks that’s fast enough to get under it, while still being able to hold its own against the aggro decks: Jund Midrange.

In a Tournament

In a tournament setting, there’s many fringe decks and having a wide variety of options in terms of your sideboard is valuable. Ray of Enfeeblement is a card I’m not totally sold on, but since white has access to so much exile removal, I can see why it’s there. I can also see it playing out reasonably well against Mono-Green in a pinch, as -4 power takes a lot of the sting out of their creatures. That being said, Power Word Kill is likely just better against Mono-Green.

Jund Midrange (Tourney)
by Arty
Standard
Midrange
best of 3
12 mythic
35 rare
6 uncommon
7 common
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
Planeswalkers (1)
Instants (2)
2
Infernal Grasp
$4.98
Sorceries (4)
Artifacts (4)
4
Esika's Chariot
$13.96
Lands (23)
3
Forest
$1.05
4
Darkbore Pathway
$37.96
4
Haunted Ridge
$51.96
2
Rockfall Vale
$13.98
60 Cards
$527.42
Sideboard
3
Power Word Kill
$0.75
4
Duress
$1.00
2
Check for Traps
$0.50
2
Go Blank
$1.58
15 Cards
$4.83

On Ladder

I don’t think there’s anything I’d change from the tournament version of this deck. The mainboard is flexible and resilient, and the sideboard has plenty of options to choose from – in my mind the strength of this deck.

Arty

Arty is MTG Arena Zone and MTGMeta.io's data analyst. He will help you find the best decks in the format!