Standard Metagame Snapshot: Top Decks for the Week of May 25, 2022
Our weekly metagame breakdown for the Standard format. We cover the movers and shakers, complete with decklists for both best-of-one and best-of-three.
Hello everyone! We want you to have the most up to date information on Standard, and initially, we did that by providing deck guides to fill out your knowledge. However, we realized that we could still do more so we’re looking to be updating Standard’s tier listweekly as well as provide analysis on the standout decks, whether they stand out for their strength, weaknesses, or they have a large change in positioning. As always, you can find the link to the complete tier lists below.
To compile this report, the first metric that I look at the most is recent tournament successes. Following tournament trends is generally the best way to dictate what decks are overperforming for the week and can cut through the noise of inaccurate data. The second metric I use is it’s inherent positioning in the metagame with what decks it’s good at beating and what beats it. The third metric is then win rate data where I see how the deck has historically done over it’s tracked life cycle. Finally, I have the fourth determination of personal bias where I let my feelings fly on why I like a deck that isn’t necessary empirical. This could be deck feel, perceived matchup strength, or any other metric I would discuss that’s not already covered. With that, let’s get into it.
Although Jeskai Combo didn’t win the Pro Tour (New Capenna Championship) nor technically sport the highest win rate of the event (both spots claimed by our next entry), I think it’s likely the overall winner for this week in Standard.
Jeskai Combo is a weird deck that is a bit meta dependent. It’s very clunky as you’re playing so many cards you need to cast later in the game, a lot of your early spells are contingent on having a creature on board, and you don’t play a large amount of removal. With all of these factors, if aggro was a popular deck this would struggle to do well. Furthermore if there were a large amount of counterspells or Soul Shatter effects, Jeskai would also have a tough time as those are hard to deal with. So why is this so good? Right now it’s threading the proverbial needle in Standard.
Aggro decks have taken a big hit in Standard with how good the midrange decks are against it. They can’t realistically beat through endless waves of value creatures and efficient interaction. However, Jeskai Storm absolutely preys on these types of strategies. If the opponent isn’t killing them quickly, Jeskai is obscenely good at sculpting their hand to the point that nothing is going to stop them from winning the game. Even against control decks, just a counterspell or two is not going to be enough to completely lock Jeskai out. Proactivity is the name of the game against Jeskai, and the meta really isn’t there right now.
Furthermore, with the Pro Tour’s results, I expect the metagame to become even better for Jeskai rather than worse. Considering the deck already performed really well, this is a pretty fantastic spot to be in, and considering aggro is likely not coming back anytime soon, this is a good time to pick up Combo if you know how to pilot it well.
Moving onto what was the highest win rate deck and winner of the Pro Tour, we have Jeskai Hinata.
Although Jeskai Hinata and Combo look extremely different despite both being in Jeskai, it’s funny as a lot of what I said applies here too. Back when Jeskai Hinata first became popular, players thought it was good against aggro and midrange as you had such an over the top game plan. With more time though, it was figured out that Hinata actually didn’t have too strong of an aggressive matchup. You needed to dedicate too many cards to not get run over, and if you did, midrange started to be a big problem if you didn’t have a Hinata, Dawn-Crowned + Magma Opus draw. Considering it became too hard to beat both decks, the popularity of it died.
However, now that we have a much more focused metagame, it’s a whole new chance for Hinata. Now it only has to beat value creatures and cheap interaction. Want to know what’s the best value creature of all? A 3 mana Magma Opus. This deck is really good at going bigger than the midrange decks and having game against the other control decks which makes it an extremely potent option right now. Ray of Enfeeblement is unfortunately a big pain in the butt for Hinata and will continue to be good because of Esper, but as long as you’re not being pressured insanely hard, losing a Hinata isn’t the end of the world. Once again like Combo, considering aggro isn’t looking to be coming back anytime soon, Hinata can continue to focus on beating up midrange decks.
Easily one of the most creative lists of the Pro Tour, Temur Control took the event by surprise with a Izzet shell splashing, of all things, Titan of Industry and Koma, Cosmos Serpent. I think we’re starting to see a pattern here.
For this Pro Tour, Izzet was the clear winner. The base cards are very good when given time to set up as their best cards are excellent card advantage, card selection, or both. Considering this Pro Tour was all about battles of attrition, it was a good place to start. Now some players opted to go for a combo finish with Goldspan Dragon, some went with Hinata to go over people, and Temur opts for the big 7 drops to come down and try to end the game instantly. All these decks accomplish very similar things, so it’s no real surprise that they all performed really well for the event.
All that said, and although I’m a fan of this deck, I feel it’s probably the weakest of the 3 Izzet(x) decks I’m highlighting as the win condition is slower and less reliable than the other two. If Midrange persists then I could see this gain more stock, but considering there’s going to be more control mirrors to contend with, I’m not sure I love it against the other decks. For what it’s worth, Koma is a beating against both Jeskai decks and midrange so maybe a version that leans much more heavily on it will be the best thing to do. I’ll be excited to see how this develops.
For the final top performer of the week, we have ChannelFireball’s awesome Grixis Vampires to examine.
Before I hop into it, there’s something important to point out. First off, respect to Team CFB as they always seem to have a cool deck coming into the Pro Tour. Second, you always have to be careful analyzing their decks as, considering the team is filled with top notch players, it can easily skew the results as they can make weaker decks look amazing. With that bias in mind, I still feel like Grixis is an excellent choice for this week as it was for the event.
The deck plays the same midrange game as a lot of other decks, but can gain slightly more value. Their deck mostly dodges Vanishing Verse, they have counterspells for the control decks, and a lot of their cards replace themselves. All of these factors were definitely important in the Pro Tour, but with a metagame that’s very likely going to start shifting towards even slower decks, having access to value creatures, hand disruption, and counterspells seems invaluable moving forward.
The Deck’s Looking To Break In / Next Best Options
What was the top of the metagame last week is just a fine option this week. Although Esper is a very powerful deck, now that other decks have established their foothold, it lost a lot of the edge it initially had.
Don’t get me wrong, Esper is still a powerful deck and this is probably “the worst” spot it will ever be in. You still have excellent threats and interaction that’s going to be a headache for a lot of decks. Right now, the big reason it’s just a fine option rather than great is it’s going to need time to adjust. A lot of the deck was geared towards beating itself as the mirror was initially the scariest matchup, but now that we know there’s a lot of Izzet decks to contend with, a different build is going to be in order.
Like Grixis, having hand disruption and counterspells is going to be huge moving forward to expect a lot more Disdainful Stroke, Duress, Go Blank, and Negate in our future.
Just like Esper Midrange, we have Naya go from the very top of the metagame to just a fine option. However, unlike Esper, the situation if vastly different.
Naya Runes greatest strength is also it’s greatest weakness, it does one thing really well. It can be brutally punishing with fast draws and has strong grindy capabilities as well with Showdown of the Skalds. However, because the game plan is so focused, it has no room to wiggle. Runes will live or die by the metagame it’s in, and despite most of the matchups being inherently good for Runes, it still has a large enough target on it that it’ll be hard to catch these decks by surprise.
As long as Runes is still targeted, it’ll hard for it to be one of the top choices, but if players stop respecting it, even for a short period of time, it can easily take down a tournament.